Load test · S01 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Critical trade divides into rival blocs

How far each nation’s capability index falls when this scenario’s load is applied to its capability scores, after its own buffers absorb what they can.

AEconomic and tradeScenario recordAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Typical nation
−0.53
median change in index, points
Hardest hit
−1.12
North Korea
Lose a domain band
149
of 197 nations
Worth of best practice
+0.20
mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Change in capability index, pointsNorth America 2United States: −0.18Canada: −0.47North America mean: −0.32United StatesEurope 42France: −0.27United Kingdom: −0.48Germany: −0.32Netherlands: −0.39Sweden: −0.39Switzerland: −0.41Norway: −0.36Finland: −0.38Denmark: −0.48Spain: −0.34Italy: −0.36Belgium: −0.45Austria: −0.45Poland: −0.47Ireland: −0.64Portugal: −0.46Czechia: −0.54Estonia: −0.53Luxembourg: −0.49Lithuania: −0.54Greece: −0.47Hungary: −0.57Slovenia: −0.59Romania: −0.46Slovakia: −0.62Latvia: −0.55Iceland: −0.51Croatia: −0.53Serbia: −0.57Bulgaria: −0.57Malta: −0.61Cyprus: −0.60Liechtenstein: −0.91North Macedonia: −0.67Montenegro: −0.62Albania: −0.55Monaco: −0.73Bosnia & Herzegovina: −0.64Andorra: −0.70San Marino: −0.78Kosovo: −0.70Holy See: −0.65Europe mean: −0.53China 1China: −0.31China mean: −0.31Indo-Pacific 30Japan: −0.33South Korea: −0.48Singapore: −0.45Australia: −0.40Taiwan: −0.62New Zealand: −0.44Malaysia: −0.66Thailand: −0.67Indonesia: −0.52Vietnam: −0.82Philippines: −0.63Mongolia: −1.00Brunei: −0.82Fiji: −0.71Cambodia: −0.95North Korea: −1.12Myanmar: −0.80Papua New Guinea: −0.73Laos: −0.92Samoa: −0.59Tonga: −0.68Timor-Leste: −0.78Vanuatu: −0.51Solomon Islands: −0.83Palau: −0.57Marshall Islands: −0.62Micronesia: −0.64Kiribati: −0.59Tuvalu: −0.55Nauru: −0.70Indo-Pacific mean: −0.67MongoliaCambodiaNorth KoreaSouth Asia 8India: −0.32Pakistan: −0.36Sri Lanka: −0.41Bangladesh: −0.40Nepal: −0.37Maldives: −0.51Bhutan: −0.49Afghanistan: −0.33South Asia mean: −0.40Gulf and Middle East 16Israel: −0.36Türkiye: −0.30United Arab Emirates: −0.48Saudi Arabia: −0.40Qatar: −0.48Egypt: −0.33Iran: −0.53Oman: −0.68Kuwait: −0.61Jordan: −0.59Bahrain: −0.63Iraq: −0.72Lebanon: −0.59Palestine: −0.44Syria: −0.31Yemen: −0.42Gulf and Middle East mean: −0.49Africa 53South Africa: −0.40Morocco: −0.38Mauritius: −0.46Tunisia: −0.42Nigeria: −0.43Kenya: −0.27Ghana: −0.44Algeria: −0.39Senegal: −0.44Botswana: −0.46Namibia: −0.61Rwanda: −0.44Tanzania: −0.37Ethiopia: −0.40Uganda: −0.39Côte d'Ivoire: −0.34Seychelles: −0.53Zambia: −0.60Cabo Verde: −0.43Angola: −0.69Cameroon: −0.38Zimbabwe: −0.50Mozambique: −0.57Benin: −0.35Togo: −0.31Gabon: −0.71Madagascar: −0.52Malawi: −0.36Eswatini: −0.55Sierra Leone: −0.67Mauritania: −0.65Burkina Faso: −0.44Lesotho: −0.71Mali: −0.39Gambia: −0.47Djibouti: −0.59Congo: −0.74Guinea: −0.65Niger: −0.37Libya: −0.76Liberia: −0.42DR Congo: −0.88São Tomé & Príncipe: −0.25Equatorial Guinea: −0.60Sudan: −0.44Burundi: −0.44Comoros: −0.29Chad: −0.49Guinea-Bissau: −0.29Eritrea: −0.66Central African Rep.: −0.40Somalia: −0.52South Sudan: −0.80Africa mean: −0.49KenyaSão Tomé & PríncipeLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: −0.33Mexico: −0.53Chile: −0.53Argentina: −0.33Colombia: −0.38Peru: −0.55Uruguay: −0.40Costa Rica: −0.53Panama: −0.54Dominican Republic: −0.62Ecuador: −0.58Trinidad & Tobago: −0.61Jamaica: −0.58Cuba: −0.49Paraguay: −0.50El Salvador: −0.62Guatemala: −0.47Barbados: −0.42Bahamas: −0.55Bolivia: −0.43Honduras: −0.69Venezuela: −0.80Guyana: −0.68Nicaragua: −0.79Antigua & Barbuda: −0.55Grenada: −0.61Suriname: −0.63Belize: −0.55Dominica: −0.42Saint Lucia: −0.52Saint Kitts & Nevis: −0.61Saint Vincent & Grenadines: −0.48Haiti: −0.66Latin America and Caribbean mean: −0.54Russia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.46Ukraine: −0.49Kazakhstan: −0.55Georgia: −0.60Belarus: −0.87Azerbaijan: −0.62Armenia: −0.78Moldova: −0.57Uzbekistan: −0.59Kyrgyzstan: −0.61Tajikistan: −0.67Turkmenistan: −0.79Russia and Eurasia mean: −0.63
  • Region mean
Lowest: North Korea, Mongolia, Cambodia. Highest: Kenya, São Tomé & Príncipe, United States.

Does capability protect?

Each nation’s baseline index against its fall. Stronger nations absorb more of the shock, so they sit higher; so do nations with low exposure.

02.557.51012.51517.5−1−0.8−0.6−0.4−0.20Baseline capability index (0 to 20)Change in index (points)United States (North America): baseline capability index 18.03, change in index −0.18France (Europe): baseline capability index 16.64, change in index −0.27United Kingdom (Europe): baseline capability index 16.45, change in index −0.48Germany (Europe): baseline capability index 16.36, change in index −0.32Japan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16.26, change in index −0.33South Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 16, change in index −0.48China (China): baseline capability index 15.64, change in index −0.31Netherlands (Europe): baseline capability index 15.5, change in index −0.39Sweden (Europe): baseline capability index 15.3, change in index −0.39Singapore (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 15.2, change in index −0.45Canada (North America): baseline capability index 15.06, change in index −0.47Australia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.95, change in index −0.40Switzerland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.73, change in index −0.41Norway (Europe): baseline capability index 14.62, change in index −0.36Finland (Europe): baseline capability index 14.52, change in index −0.38Israel (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 14.46, change in index −0.36Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 14.03, change in index −0.62Denmark (Europe): baseline capability index 13.94, change in index −0.48Spain (Europe): baseline capability index 13.78, change in index −0.34Italy (Europe): baseline capability index 13.72, change in index −0.36Belgium (Europe): baseline capability index 13.46, change in index −0.45New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 12.83, change in index −0.44Austria (Europe): baseline capability index 12.81, change in index −0.45India (South Asia): baseline capability index 12.61, change in index −0.32Poland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.39, change in index −0.47Russia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 12.3, change in index −0.46Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 12.18, change in index −0.30Ireland (Europe): baseline capability index 12.08, change in index −0.64United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.94, change in index −0.48Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 11.69, change in index −0.33Portugal (Europe): baseline capability index 11.68, change in index −0.46Czechia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.51, change in index −0.54Estonia (Europe): baseline capability index 11.49, change in index −0.53Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 11.48, change in index −0.66Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 11.19, change in index −0.40Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.85, change in index −0.53Luxembourg (Europe): baseline capability index 10.79, change in index −0.49South Africa (Africa): baseline capability index 10.77, change in index −0.40Lithuania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.75, change in index −0.54Thailand (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 10.7, change in index −0.67Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.53Greece (Europe): baseline capability index 10.61, change in index −0.47Hungary (Europe): baseline capability index 10.51, change in index −0.57Slovenia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.48, change in index −0.59Romania (Europe): baseline capability index 10.16, change in index −0.46Slovakia (Europe): baseline capability index 10.1, change in index −0.62Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.97, change in index −0.52Latvia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.89, change in index −0.55Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 9.68, change in index −0.82Iceland (Europe): baseline capability index 9.63, change in index −0.51Croatia (Europe): baseline capability index 9.53, change in index −0.53Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 9.4, change in index −0.49Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 9.39, change in index −0.48Morocco (Africa): baseline capability index 9.36, change in index −0.38Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.25, change in index −0.33Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 9.11, change in index −0.38Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.98, change in index −0.33Serbia (Europe): baseline capability index 8.97, change in index −0.57Bulgaria (Europe): baseline capability index 8.95, change in index −0.57Malta (Europe): baseline capability index 8.89, change in index −0.61Philippines (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 8.83, change in index −0.63Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.61, change in index −0.55Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 8.54, change in index −0.40Cyprus (Europe): baseline capability index 8.51, change in index −0.60Iran (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.17, change in index −0.53Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 8.14, change in index −0.55Mauritius (Africa): baseline capability index 8.08, change in index −0.46Oman (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 8.03, change in index −0.68Pakistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.96, change in index −0.36Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.76, change in index −0.53Tunisia (Africa): baseline capability index 7.71, change in index −0.42Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 7.55, change in index −0.60Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.51, change in index −0.61Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.5, change in index −0.59Nigeria (Africa): baseline capability index 7.43, change in index −0.43Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 7.32, change in index −0.63Sri Lanka (South Asia): baseline capability index 7.25, change in index −0.41Liechtenstein (Europe): baseline capability index 7.22, change in index −0.91Kenya (Africa): baseline capability index 7.18, change in index −0.27Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 7.17, change in index −0.54Ghana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.98, change in index −0.44Algeria (Africa): baseline capability index 6.96, change in index −0.39Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.9, change in index −0.87Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.82, change in index −0.62Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.79, change in index −0.62Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.76, change in index −0.58Bangladesh (South Asia): baseline capability index 6.73, change in index −0.40Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.69, change in index −0.61Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.65, change in index −0.78North Macedonia (Europe): baseline capability index 6.61, change in index −0.67Senegal (Africa): baseline capability index 6.42, change in index −0.44Montenegro (Europe): baseline capability index 6.35, change in index −0.62Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 6.34, change in index −0.57Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 6.24, change in index −0.58Albania (Europe): baseline capability index 6.13, change in index −0.55Botswana (Africa): baseline capability index 6.08, change in index −0.46Namibia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.61Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.49Rwanda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.95, change in index −0.44Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 5.92, change in index −0.59Monaco (Europe): baseline capability index 5.91, change in index −0.73Tanzania (Africa): baseline capability index 5.82, change in index −0.37Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): baseline capability index 5.8, change in index −0.64Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.79, change in index −0.50Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.73, change in index −1.00Ethiopia (Africa): baseline capability index 5.7, change in index −0.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.68, change in index −0.62Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.67, change in index −0.47Brunei (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.6, change in index −0.82Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.56, change in index −0.42Uganda (Africa): baseline capability index 5.53, change in index −0.39Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): baseline capability index 5.42, change in index −0.34Seychelles (Africa): baseline capability index 5.27, change in index −0.53Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.55Fiji (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 5.16, change in index −0.71Andorra (Europe): baseline capability index 5.15, change in index −0.70Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.11, change in index −0.43Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 5.05, change in index −0.69San Marino (Europe): baseline capability index 5.03, change in index −0.78Nepal (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.96, change in index −0.37Zambia (Africa): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.60Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.93, change in index −0.95Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.77, change in index −0.61Cabo Verde (Africa): baseline capability index 4.72, change in index −0.43Kosovo (Europe): baseline capability index 4.7, change in index −0.70Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.69, change in index −0.72Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 4.66, change in index −0.59Maldives (South Asia): baseline capability index 4.62, change in index −0.51Angola (Africa): baseline capability index 4.6, change in index −0.69Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.55, change in index −0.80Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.53, change in index −0.68Cameroon (Africa): baseline capability index 4.39, change in index −0.38Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.37, change in index −0.79Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.36, change in index −0.55Zimbabwe (Africa): baseline capability index 4.34, change in index −0.50North Korea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 4.26, change in index −1.12Mozambique (Africa): baseline capability index 4.12, change in index −0.57Benin (Africa): baseline capability index 4.09, change in index −0.35Togo (Africa): baseline capability index 4.05, change in index −0.31Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.61Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.04, change in index −0.63Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 4.03, change in index −0.55Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 4.01, change in index −0.67Gabon (Africa): baseline capability index 3.94, change in index −0.71Bhutan (South Asia): baseline capability index 3.93, change in index −0.49Madagascar (Africa): baseline capability index 3.9, change in index −0.52Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.89, change in index −0.80Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.87, change in index −0.42Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.85, change in index −0.52Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.83, change in index −0.61Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.8, change in index −0.73Malawi (Africa): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.36Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 3.76, change in index −0.48Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 3.72, change in index −0.44Eswatini (Africa): baseline capability index 3.71, change in index −0.55Laos (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.7, change in index −0.92Sierra Leone (Africa): baseline capability index 3.59, change in index −0.67Mauritania (Africa): baseline capability index 3.58, change in index −0.65Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): baseline capability index 3.55, change in index −0.79Samoa (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.48, change in index −0.59Burkina Faso (Africa): baseline capability index 3.47, change in index −0.44Lesotho (Africa): baseline capability index 3.43, change in index −0.71Mali (Africa): baseline capability index 3.41, change in index −0.39Gambia (Africa): baseline capability index 3.32, change in index −0.47Tonga (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 3.21, change in index −0.68Djibouti (Africa): baseline capability index 3.2, change in index −0.59Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 3.19, change in index −0.74Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 3.15, change in index −0.65Niger (Africa): baseline capability index 3.07, change in index −0.37Libya (Africa): baseline capability index 3.01, change in index −0.76Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.98, change in index −0.78Liberia (Africa): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.42Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.93, change in index −0.51Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.91, change in index −0.83DR Congo (Africa): baseline capability index 2.87, change in index −0.88São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): baseline capability index 2.85, change in index −0.25Palau (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.84, change in index −0.57Equatorial Guinea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.8, change in index −0.60Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 2.61, change in index −0.44Burundi (Africa): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.44Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.48, change in index −0.62Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.33, change in index −0.64Comoros (Africa): baseline capability index 2.29, change in index −0.29Chad (Africa): baseline capability index 2.26, change in index −0.49Syria (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 2.22, change in index −0.31Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.2, change in index −0.59Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 2.12, change in index −0.55Guinea-Bissau (Africa): baseline capability index 2.07, change in index −0.29Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): baseline capability index 2.03, change in index −0.66Eritrea (Africa): baseline capability index 2.01, change in index −0.66Nauru (Indo-Pacific): baseline capability index 1.96, change in index −0.70Holy See (Europe): baseline capability index 1.85, change in index −0.65Central African Rep. (Africa): baseline capability index 1.66, change in index −0.40Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.42Somalia (Africa): baseline capability index 1.62, change in index −0.52Afghanistan (South Asia): baseline capability index 1.46, change in index −0.33South Sudan (Africa): baseline capability index 1.38, change in index −0.80United StatesKenyaMongoliaCambodiaNorth KoreaSão Tomé & Príncipe
  • North America
  • Europe
  • China
  • Indo-Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Gulf and Middle East
  • Africa
  • Latin America and Caribbean
  • Russia and Eurasia

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Capability domainMean change, points

Trade & Investment

Information & Influence

Financial Strength

Governance & Integrity

Production & Innovation

Critical Technology

Strategic Infrastructure

Human Capital

National Security

−0.89

−0.67

−0.67

−0.65

−0.65

−0.50

−0.29

−0.29

−0.24

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from no response to current plans is what current buffers absorb; from current plans to best practice is what best practice would add.

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

197 of 197 nations

Nation
Region
Exposure
Baseline
Stressed
Change
%
Rank shift
Bands lost
Absorbed
Weakest point
North KoreaIndo-PacificHigh 1.004.263.15−1.12−26.2▼ 1724 · 1d16%Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception
MongoliaIndo-PacificHigh 0.925.734.74−1.00−17.4▼ 815 · 3d23%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
CambodiaIndo-PacificHigh 0.874.933.97−0.95−19.4▼ 723 · 2d21%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LaosIndo-PacificHigh 0.813.702.79−0.92−24.8▼ 624 · 4d15%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LiechtensteinEuropeHigh 0.977.226.31−0.91−12.6▼ 524 · 5d31%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
DR CongoAfricaHigh 0.752.871.99−0.88−30.8▼ 622 · 5d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
BelarusRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.806.906.03−0.87−12.6▼ 525 · 4d27%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception
Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificHigh 0.742.912.08−0.83−28.6▼ 414 · 2d12%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
VietnamIndo-PacificHigh 0.939.688.85−0.82−8.5▼ 624 · 2d40%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent
BruneiIndo-PacificHigh 0.775.604.78−0.82−14.6▼ 220 · 3d23%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.654.553.76−0.80−17.5▼ 425 · 1d17%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
MyanmarIndo-PacificHigh 0.653.893.08−0.80−20.6▼ 720 · 5d15%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
South SudanAfricaHigh 0.801.380.57−0.80−58.3035%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanHigh 0.694.373.58−0.79−18.1▼ 422 · 3d18%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.703.552.76−0.79−22.3▼ 419 · 6d16%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaHigh 0.686.655.87−0.78−11.8▼ 219 · 3d23%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
San MarinoEuropeHigh 0.765.034.25−0.78−15.5▼ 312 · 2d18%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Timor-LesteIndo-PacificHigh 0.712.982.21−0.78−26.0▼ 417 · 3d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
LibyaAfricaHigh 0.623.012.24−0.76−25.4▼ 42312%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
CongoAfricaHigh 0.643.192.45−0.74−23.1▼ 422 · 3d14%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
MonacoEuropeHigh 0.705.915.18−0.73−12.4▼ 414 · 1d24%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificHigh 0.653.803.07−0.73−19.2▼ 415 · 2d17%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
IraqGulf and Middle EastHigh 0.614.693.98−0.72−15.3▼ 219 · 1d19%Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
FijiIndo-PacificHigh 0.665.164.45−0.71−13.7▼ 317 · 1d21%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
GabonAfricaHigh 0.623.943.23−0.71−18.0▼ 614 · 1d17%Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception

Showing 1–25 of 197 nations · page 1 of 8

Settings of this run

Load

11 capability groups singled out, 73 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.

Singled out
  • Advanced Materials & Manufacturing· High
  • Semiconductors & Advanced Computing· High
  • Biotechnology & Health Technologies· High
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks· High
  • Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls· High
  • Monetary & Currency Capability· High
  • Industrial & Sectoral Base· High
  • Trade Policy & Market Access· High
  • Export Capability & Sophistication· High
  • Global Value Chain Position· High
  • Economic Leverage & Dependence· High
Buffers
  • Economic Leverage & Dependence
  • Structural Transformation & Complexity
  • Advanced Manufacturing
  • Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
  • National Resilience & Crisis Management
  • Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power

Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.

Exposure

regional exposure (30%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (30%); share of exports going to china and the united states (25%); industry as a share of gdp (ranked) (15%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.

Likelihood

4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results