Azerbaijan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.1
- rank 106 of 197 · 3 years: 19.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −25.3
- rank 185 of 197 · 3 years: −25.5
- Shock absorbed
- 28%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.24
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Azerbaijan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.82 | −0.80 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.75 | −1.05 | −0.47 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.91 | −0.71 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 4 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.67 | −0.67 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 13 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.62 | −0.67 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.62 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.45 | −0.45 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Maritime Power 3.1 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.35 | −0.37 | −0.55 | −0.24 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 7 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.37 | −0.34 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.1 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.39 | −0.33 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.9 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.96 | −0.57 | −1.05 | · | −1.28 | −1.20 | −1.12 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.77 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.97 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.52 | −1.14 | −1.14 | · | −1.27 | −1.31 | · | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.39 | −0.43 | −0.78 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −1.27 | −1.04 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| AI labour shock | −0.73 | −0.34 | · | −0.91 | −0.79 | −0.94 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.74 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.99 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.25 | −0.60 | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.54 | −0.46 | −0.59 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.51 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.20 | −0.22 | · | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.45 | −0.73 | −0.52 | −0.46 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Azerbaijan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 32 | 126 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.7 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 14.6 | 18.7 | 26 | 155 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 17.2 | 28.5 | 26 | 134 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −17.2 | 10.4 | 27.6 | 23 | 172 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −19.6 | 7.0 | 26.6 | 25 | 190 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −19.7 | 4.0 | 23.8 | 17 | 160 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −20.7 | 12.2 | 32.8 | 36 | 162 | Trade Policy & Market Access 6.5 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −30.2 | 5.9 | 36.1 | 12 | 154 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −40.4 | 3.7 | 44.1 | 34 | 190 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −52.9 | 7.5 | 60.4 | 25 | 182 | Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Azerbaijan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 4.2% Possible · rank 2 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 3.6% Possible · rank 57 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 2.4% Possible · rank 22 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 10 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.3 Foundational → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 18 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 15 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 10 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Defence readiness failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 11 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 12 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 168 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 54 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 70 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 174 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Health system failure | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 174 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 135 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Food and water failure | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 127 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 159 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 86 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 86 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×4.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |