Bahamas
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 26.5
- rank 81 of 197 · 3 years: 26.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −9.5
- rank 121 of 197 · 3 years: −9.2
- Shock absorbed
- 23%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; services as a share of gdp; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bahamas’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.77 | −0.84 | −1.02 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.77 | −0.84 | −1.08 | −0.48 | ▼ 3 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.77 | −0.80 | −1.04 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.77 | −0.71 | −0.82 | −0.38 | 0 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.72 | −0.67 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 2.3 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.76 | −0.63 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.8 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.55 | −0.67 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.64 | −0.55 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.3 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.40 | −0.44 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.45 | −0.40 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −1.21 | −0.78 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −0.94 | −1.20 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.25 | −0.49 | −0.36 | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| AI labour shock | −0.25 | −0.44 | · | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.22 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.25 | −0.59 | −0.81 | · | −1.30 | −1.22 | −1.14 | −0.49 | −0.56 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.02 | −0.29 | −0.81 | −0.36 | −0.91 | −0.97 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.18 | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.39 | −0.88 | −1.44 | −1.01 | −0.90 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.22 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.31 | −0.72 | −0.70 | −0.72 | −0.71 | −0.97 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.59 | −0.34 | −0.79 | −1.10 | −0.90 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.56 | −0.17 | −0.52 | −0.50 | −0.54 | −0.57 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.17 | −0.69 | −0.63 | · | −0.77 | −0.79 | · | −0.29 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bahamas is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 18 | 101 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 15.0 | 15.3 | 27 | 69 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 30 | 116 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 10.3 | 16.6 | 20 | 108 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −7.1 | 10.0 | 17.1 | 14 | 149 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −9.8 | 6.2 | 16.0 | 22 | 163 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.1 | 15.3 | 27.4 | 18 | 137 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −15.5 | 3.4 | 18.9 | 6 | 76 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −16.2 | 6.0 | 22.2 | 16 | 176 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −17.8 | 6.4 | 24.2 | 13 | 149 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bahamas, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 3.2% Possible · rank 71 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Major | ×2.1 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.7% Possible · rank 51 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 62 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 38 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Health system failure | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 42 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 10 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 42 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.2 |
| Food and water failure | 6.3 Foundational → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 132 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 140 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 2.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×12 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×31 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |