Barbados
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.6
- rank 103 of 197 · 3 years: 20.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.9
- rank 117 of 197 · 3 years: −8.8
- Shock absorbed
- 25%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Barbados’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.72 | −0.74 | −0.99 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.61 | −0.67 | −0.82 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.71 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.36 | 0 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.61 | −0.65 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.68 | −0.58 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.9 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.70 | −0.57 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.3 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.54 | −0.48 | −0.74 | −0.32 | ▲ 4 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.42 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.42 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.34 | −0.30 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.41 | −0.40 | · | −1.06 | −0.93 | −1.10 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.25 | −0.95 | −0.62 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.94 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.41 | −0.53 | −0.75 | · | −1.19 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −0.44 | −0.51 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.91 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.21 | −0.40 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.81 | −1.33 | −0.93 | −0.83 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.20 | −0.39 | −0.56 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −1.14 | −0.94 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.73 | −0.18 | −0.58 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.72 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.54 | −0.15 | −0.51 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.52 | −0.43 | · | −0.58 | −0.60 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Barbados is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 20 | 106 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 35 | 74 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 13.2 | 16.6 | 30 | 81 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 10.3 | 13.7 | 18 | 141 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −3.6 | 11.7 | 15.3 | 22 | 93 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −8.6 | 5.4 | 14.0 | 23 | 158 | Intelligence & Assessment 2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 8.8 | 20.7 | 19 | 154 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.5 | 4.6 | 19.1 | 13 | 124 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −15.1 | 3.6 | 18.7 | 7 | 75 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −15.8 | 17.0 | 32.8 | 22 | 158 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Barbados, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 113 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 164 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 80 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 150 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 145 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 66 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 150 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 2.3 |
| Health system failure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 156 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 141 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 132 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 2.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 95 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Food and water failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 127 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 167 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 2.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×18 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |