Europe · BEL

Belgium

Baseline index 13.46Rank 21 of 197EstablishedEuropeAtlas profileAll results

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years: 9.0; rank 169 of 197 · 3 years: 8.9
Worst case: −5.7%; Regional war spillover · tail −5.1%
Opportunity · 10 years: +31.4; rank 12 of 197 · 3 years: +31.6
Best case: +58; Outbreak defence succeeds · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed: 52%; by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend: +0.06; expected index points from best practice
Breadth: 10of 10; scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing; weakest point in 1 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Belgium’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Regional war spillover (S03)

Severe pandemic (S10)

AI labour shock (S08)

Cryptographic trust break (S09)

Global funding seizure (S02)

Hybrid coercion (S04)

Trade bloc rupture (S01)

Breadbasket failure (S06)

Legitimacy rupture (S05)

Core disaster (S07)

−0.77

−0.67

−0.61

−0.51

−0.48

−0.45

−0.33

−0.29

−0.28

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Bands lost	Weakest point
Regional war spillover S03	High 0.98	−0.77	−1.44	−0.63	33	Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.1 · Nascent
Severe pandemic S10	High 0.95	−0.67	−1.48	−0.63	26	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.7 · Transitional
AI labour shock S08	High 0.87	−0.61	−1.30	−0.56	26	Artificial Intelligence 9.8 · Transitional
Cryptographic trust break S09	High 0.91	−0.61	−1.17	−0.51	24	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8.3 · Foundational
Global funding seizure S02	High 0.93	−0.51	−1.16	−0.50	21	Economic Output & Productivity 13.3 · Established
Hybrid coercion S04	High 0.79	−0.48	−0.88	−0.39	17	Maritime Power 6.5 · Foundational
Trade bloc rupture S01	High 0.64	−0.45	−0.95	−0.41	16	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.4 · Transitional
Breadbasket failure S06	Medium 0.46	−0.33	−0.73	−0.31	18	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.6 · Established
Legitimacy rupture S05	Medium 0.49	−0.29	−0.64	−0.27	13	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.3 · Transitional
Core disaster S07	Medium 0.48	−0.28	−0.67	−0.28	17	Energy Infrastructure 12.9 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT Critical Technology	SI Strategic Infrastructure	NS National Security	HC Human Capital	II Information & Influence	GI Governance & Integrity	FS Financial Strength	PI Production & Innovation	TI Trade & Investment
Regional war spillover	−0.43	−1.02	−1.02	−0.39	−0.39	−0.98	−0.91	−0.78	−1.01
Severe pandemic	−0.71	−0.35	−0.32	−0.86	−0.75	−0.80	−0.75	−0.73	−0.73
AI labour shock	−0.67	−0.31	·	−0.82	−0.71	−0.84	−0.71	−0.70	−0.70
Cryptographic trust break	−0.78	−0.42	−0.85	·	−0.94	−0.88	−0.83	−0.35	−0.40
Global funding seizure	−0.31	−0.34	·	−0.34	−0.31	−0.69	−1.12	−0.79	−0.70
Hybrid coercion	−0.35	−0.76	−0.82	·	−0.84	−0.87	·	−0.32	−0.32
Trade bloc rupture	−0.58	−0.22	−0.22	−0.22	−0.52	−0.50	−0.52	−0.51	−0.70
Breadbasket failure	−0.17	−0.41	−0.16	−0.38	−0.36	−0.39	−0.42	−0.31	−0.36
Legitimacy rupture	−0.17	−0.18	−0.37	−0.17	−0.39	−0.55	−0.45	−0.17	−0.19
Core disaster	−0.02	−0.42	−0.15	−0.34	−0.15	−0.38	−0.40	−0.35	−0.35

Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Belgium is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗	Gainer	+58.2	59.4	1.2	65	11	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11 · Transitional
Automated discovery step S17 ↗	Gainer	+44.2	54.0	9.8	61	15	Artificial Intelligence 11 · Transitional
Clean power threshold S15 ↗	Gainer	+42.3	48.5	6.2	58	17	Resource Infrastructure 9.3 · Transitional
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗	Gainer	+35.5	53.7	18.2	74	17	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 14.3 · Established
Market access opening S12 ↗	Gainer	+29.6	39.5	9.8	71	8	Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
Middle East settlement S14 ↗	Gainer	+29.5	33.7	4.3	64	17	Intelligence & Assessment 11 · Transitional
Great-power détente S13 ↗	Gainer	+26.0	35.0	9.0	65	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.3 · Transitional
Public service leap S18 ↗	Gainer	+13.6	17.1	3.5	68	19	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.6 · Established
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗	Mixed	+9.5	15.8	6.4	70	43	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 13.3 · Established
Debt service reset S11 ↗	Mixed	−0.8	4.6	5.4	71	107	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13.5 · Established

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Belgium, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failure	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Breakdown of state function	15.4 Advanced → Established	3.7% Possible · rank 53	Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×2.5	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Loss of financial stability	15.2 Advanced → Transitional	2.3% Possible · rank 70	Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.5	Maritime Power 7.8
Broad fall in financial strength	14.9 Established → Transitional	2.3% Possible · rank 17	Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail	×2.7	Maritime Power 7.8
Rupture in trade and supply	15.3 Advanced → Established	1.8% Possible · rank 26	Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.2	Maritime Power 7.8
Broad fall in governance and integrity	15.1 Advanced → Transitional	1.6% Possible · rank 78	Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×3.1	Maritime Power 7.8
Strategic awareness failure	9.9 Transitional → Foundational	1.3% Possible · rank 37	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.5	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Collapse in energy security	11.4 Transitional → Foundational	1.2% Possible · rank 26	Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×2.3	Maritime Power 7.8
Broad fall in trade and investment	15.0 Advanced → Established	1.1% Possible · rank 26	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×3.0	Maritime Power 7.8
Rule of law failure	14.9 Established → Transitional	1.0% Possible · rank 41	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.2	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Breakdown of information trust	13.3 Established → Transitional	1.0% Unlikely · rank 51	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.2	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Broad fall in national security	8.1 Foundational → Nascent	0.9% Unlikely · rank 5	Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×3.0	Maritime Power 7.8
Broad fall in information and influence	12.7 Established → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 43	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.2	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Loss of industrial capacity	15.2 Advanced → Established	0.8% Unlikely · rank 17	Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail	×3.6	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.4
Diplomatic isolation	14.1 Established → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 45	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.2	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure	13.8 Established → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely · rank 25	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×3.0	Maritime Power 7.8
Defence readiness failure	9.3 Transitional → Nascent	0.7% Unlikely · rank 18	Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail	×3.1	Maritime Power 7.8
Broad fall in production and innovation	14.8 Established → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely · rank 17	Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×3.8	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Failure of digital lifelines	14.5 Established → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely · rank 25	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.2	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Health system failure	15.7 Advanced → Established	0.7% Unlikely · rank 84	Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×2.3	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Food and water failure	14.1 Established → Transitional	0.4% Unlikely · rank 77	Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×3.8	Maritime Power 7.8
Broad fall in critical technology	11.3 Transitional → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely · rank 14	Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.9	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Loss of advanced technology base	10.6 Transitional → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely · rank 9	Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×4.2	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7
Broad fall in human capital	15.3 Advanced → Transitional	0.2% Unlikely · rank 39	Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.5	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Education pipeline failure	15.6 Advanced → Established	0.2% Unlikely · rank 27	Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.7	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Loss of strategic deterrence	4.1 Nascent → Inception	0.1% Remote · rank 6	Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail	×2.9	Maritime Power 7.8

Routes to prosperity	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Frontier AI and compute	11.2 Transitional → Established	18% Likely · rank 12	Automated discovery step Severe	×0.9	Artificial Intelligence 11
Stronger health and biotechnology	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	15% Likely · rank 14	Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.0	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Trusted public institutions	14.8 Established → Advanced	13% Likely · rank 12	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Capable digital government	15.0 Advanced → Advanced	13% Likely · rank 13	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Broad rise in critical technology	11.3 Transitional → Established	12% Likely · rank 14	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Broad rise in governance and integrity	15.1 Advanced → Advanced	11% Likely · rank 13	Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.2	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Broad rise in trade and investment	15.0 Advanced → Advanced	8.1% Likely · rank 11	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Sophisticated export strength	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	8.1% Likely · rank 9	Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major	×1.4	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.3
Research translated into value	15.2 Advanced → Advanced	8.1% Likely · rank 14	Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe	×1.1	Artificial Intelligence 11
Higher-value manufacturing	13.5 Established → Advanced	7.7% Likely · rank 13	Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe	×1.2	Artificial Intelligence 11
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure	13.8 Established → Advanced	7.3% Likely · rank 11	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Reliable low-cost energy	12.4 Established → Established	6.9% Likely · rank 15	Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe	×1.0	Resource Infrastructure 9.3
Higher-value international business	14.7 Established → Advanced	6.6% Likely · rank 9	Market access opening Extreme	×1.5	Energy Infrastructure 13.5
Broad rise in human capital	15.3 Advanced → Advanced	6.0% Likely · rank 14	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Adaptable skilled workforce	14.6 Established → Advanced	4.0% Possible · rank 12	Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.7	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Secure food and water supply	14.1 Established → Advanced	3.8% Possible · rank 12	Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.7	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Broad rise in production and innovation	14.8 Established → Advanced	3.8% Possible · rank 16	Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe	×1.6	Resource Infrastructure 9.3
Broad rise in financial strength	14.9 Established → Advanced	3.7% Possible · rank 14	Chronic disease advance Extreme	×1.6	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 14.3
Assured space services	7.9 Foundational → Transitional	2.3% Possible · rank 13	Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.9	Artificial Intelligence 11
Wider international influence	14.1 Established → Advanced	2.2% Possible · rank 10	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.7	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Stronger information environment	11.4 Transitional → Established	1.5% Possible · rank 14	Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.3	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Deeper long-term finance	14.9 Established → Advanced	1.3% Possible · rank 17	Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major	×1.6	Resource Infrastructure 9.3
Broad rise in information and influence	12.7 Established → Established	1.1% Possible · rank 12	Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.4	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11
Broad rise in national security	8.1 Foundational → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 13	Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme	×1.9	Artificial Intelligence 11
More deployable joint force	9.9 Transitional → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 14	Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme	×1.9	Artificial Intelligence 11