Belize
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 32.3
- rank 64 of 197 · 3 years: 32.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.2
- rank 127 of 197 · 3 years: −10.0
- Shock absorbed
- 19%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Belize’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.72 | −0.80 | −0.95 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.83 | −0.77 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▼ 4 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.73 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.65 | −0.71 | −0.86 | −0.39 | 0 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.69 | −0.90 | −0.41 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.3 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.64 | −0.66 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.65 | −0.62 | −0.69 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.55 | −0.64 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.29 | −0.35 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 7 | 13 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.35 | −0.32 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0.1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.16 | −1.17 | −0.74 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.13 | −1.05 | −0.90 | −1.16 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.53 | · | −0.54 | −0.48 | −1.09 | −1.77 | −1.24 | −1.10 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.20 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −1.05 | −0.92 | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| AI labour shock | −0.20 | −0.40 | · | −1.05 | −0.92 | −1.09 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.47 | −0.71 | −0.43 | −1.00 | −1.39 | −1.14 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.00 | −0.29 | −0.80 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.20 | −0.51 | −0.69 | · | −1.14 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.18 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.71 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.99 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.14 | −0.55 | −0.51 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Belize is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.5 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 26 | 52 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 14 | 141 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +0.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 12 | 129 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 14.3 | 19.6 | 22 | 90 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 4.9 | 10.8 | 16 | 150 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.4 | 11.0 | 18.4 | 16 | 114 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −11.2 | 10.6 | 21.8 | 15 | 133 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.1 | 4.6 | 22.7 | 10 | 155 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −18.7 | 4.2 | 22.9 | 13 | 185 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.4 | 2.2 | 23.6 | 4 | 108 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Belize, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 4.0% Possible · rank 18 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.3% Possible · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 28 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 83 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 63 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 131 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 2.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 46 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Health system failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 127 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 75 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severe | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Food and water failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 0.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 186 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×15 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 171 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 2.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 162 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×48 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |