Bolivia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.8
- rank 101 of 197 · 3 years: 20.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −20.6
- rank 179 of 197 · 3 years: −20.8
- Shock absorbed
- 22%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 1of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; few months of imports covered by reserves; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bolivia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.65 | −0.76 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.59 | −0.69 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.71 | −0.67 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.61 | −0.65 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.63 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.5 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.62 | −0.62 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.2 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.37 | −0.43 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.39 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.38 | −0.34 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.25 | −0.29 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 7 | 11 | Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.65 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.01 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| AI labour shock | −0.64 | −0.36 | · | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.43 | −0.77 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −1.26 | −1.04 | −0.39 | −0.44 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.67 | −0.48 | −0.87 | · | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.93 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.42 | · | −0.42 | −0.38 | −0.86 | −1.40 | −0.98 | −0.87 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.93 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.33 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.51 | −0.49 | −0.51 | −0.50 | −0.69 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.46 | −0.44 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.26 | −0.56 | −0.54 | · | −0.62 | −0.64 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.38 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bolivia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 34 | 25 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 18 | 111 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 13.1 | 18.6 | 19 | 102 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −13.9 | 12.0 | 25.9 | 19 | 150 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −14.7 | 13.2 | 28.0 | 25 | 138 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.1 | 6.1 | 21.2 | 18 | 167 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 3.6 | 18.8 | 13 | 133 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −25.2 | 3.8 | 29.0 | 8 | 133 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −34.7 | 2.4 | 37.1 | 26 | 182 | Intelligence & Assessment 4 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −46.9 | 5.7 | 52.6 | 20 | 176 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bolivia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 123 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 171 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 138 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 170 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severe | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 125 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severe | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 165 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Health system failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 157 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 96 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 172 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Food and water failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 172 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 147 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 173 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 183 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×3.2 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 118 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |