Bosnia & Herzegovina
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 26.7
- rank 80 of 197 · 3 years: 26.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.3
- rank 130 of 197 · 3 years: −10.2
- Shock absorbed
- 23%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −1.05 | −1.32 | −0.60 | ▼ 10 | 21 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.78 | −0.87 | −1.13 | −0.50 | ▼ 6 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0.2 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.75 | −0.86 | −1.13 | −0.51 | ▼ 4 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.85 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 5 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.64 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.69 | −0.60 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▼ 7 | 11 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.59 | −0.54 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.56 | −0.51 | −0.72 | −0.31 | ▲ 5 | 5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.46 | −0.44 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.33 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 2 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.55 | −1.44 | −1.17 | −0.55 | −0.55 | −1.39 | −1.29 | −1.11 | −1.43 |
| AI labour shock | −0.82 | −0.45 | · | −1.19 | −1.05 | −1.23 | −1.05 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.79 | −0.47 | −0.38 | −1.14 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.98 | −0.98 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.91 | −0.62 | −1.13 | · | −1.38 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −0.52 | −0.59 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.77 | −0.76 | −1.04 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.43 | −0.98 | −0.94 | · | −1.09 | −1.13 | · | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.32 | −0.36 | · | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.73 | −1.19 | −0.84 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.29 | −0.33 | −0.59 | −0.30 | −0.69 | −0.97 | −0.79 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.21 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bosnia & Herzegovina is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +17.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 | 20 | 52 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +12.5 | 15.6 | 3.1 | 22 | 82 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +12.1 | 13.9 | 1.8 | 29 | 58 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.7 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 24 | 82 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Loser | −10.2 | 3.6 | 13.7 | 38 | 192 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −12.2 | 4.9 | 17.1 | 22 | 157 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.6 | 6.7 | 21.2 | 15 | 127 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.3 | 12.8 | 28.2 | 30 | 143 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −20.4 | 8.8 | 29.2 | 11 | 98 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −30.1 | 14.7 | 44.9 | 23 | 192 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Bosnia & Herzegovina, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 4.1% Possible · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 3.1% Possible · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.0% Possible · rank 43 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 29 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 29 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 23 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 51 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 38 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 38 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 56 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 114 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 3.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Artificial Intelligence 2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |