Cameroon
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 23.9
- rank 91 of 197 · 3 years: 23.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −19.1
- rank 178 of 197 · 3 years: −19.3
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.22
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Cameroon’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.69 | −0.85 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Population Health 2.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.74 | −0.78 | −0.94 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.8 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.51 | −0.63 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.51 | −0.61 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0.4 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.51 | −0.56 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.54 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.45 | −0.44 | −0.56 | −0.24 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.6 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.32 | −0.38 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.31 | −0.28 | −0.34 | −0.15 | 0 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.22 | −0.26 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 10 | 11 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.37 | −1.07 | −0.37 | −1.00 | −0.96 | −1.03 | −1.09 | −0.82 | −0.94 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.91 | −0.46 | −1.07 | −1.49 | −1.22 | −0.46 | −0.52 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.54 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.84 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| AI labour shock | −0.54 | −0.32 | · | −0.84 | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.56 | −0.41 | −0.75 | · | −0.91 | −0.86 | −0.80 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.82 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.78 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.29 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.98 | −0.69 | −0.61 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.44 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.62 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.46 | · | −0.51 | −0.53 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Cameroon is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.9 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 18 | 38 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.0 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 25 | 72 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4.5 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 18 | 84 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −5.6 | 8.6 | 14.2 | 18 | 161 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −10.9 | 2.7 | 13.7 | 12 | 101 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −13.4 | 13.2 | 26.6 | 15 | 162 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −19.1 | 14.5 | 33.7 | 23 | 157 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −30.7 | 2.6 | 33.3 | 7 | 155 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −34.6 | 9.0 | 43.6 | 24 | 181 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.2 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −61.4 | 5.2 | 66.6 | 15 | 185 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Cameroon, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 174 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Food and water failure | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 35 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 152 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 163 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 94 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 164 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 130 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 166 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 116 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 171 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 128 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 100 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 170 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 111 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.9 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.9 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |