Chile
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 9.2
- rank 167 of 197 · 3 years: 9.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +11.0
- rank 40 of 197 · 3 years: +11.3
- Shock absorbed
- 45%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.09
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; adult obesity rate; youth unemployment rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Chile’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.77 | −0.68 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.71 | −0.61 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.58 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Artificial Intelligence 5.5 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.69 | −0.55 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.9 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.53 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.78 | −0.53 | −1.08 | −0.47 | 0 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.50 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.2 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.46 | −0.32 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.50 | −0.31 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Labour & Employment 10.5 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.27 | −0.21 | −0.42 | −0.18 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.72 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.79 | −0.43 | −0.79 | · | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| AI labour shock | −0.64 | −0.29 | · | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.81 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.31 | −0.74 | −0.68 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.57 | −0.73 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.70 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.63 | −0.60 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.84 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.80 | −0.26 | −0.63 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.94 | −0.77 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.52 | −0.52 | · | −0.58 | −0.60 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.20 | · | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.68 | −0.48 | −0.43 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Chile is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +32.8 | 34.1 | 1.3 | 44 | 27 | Energy Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +28.9 | 32.4 | 3.4 | 46 | 49 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +19.3 | 39.2 | 19.9 | 47 | 32 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +12.7 | 22.5 | 9.8 | 44 | 22 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +10.8 | 15.0 | 4.2 | 51 | 59 | Intelligence & Assessment 8.7 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.6 | 28.5 | 22.0 | 58 | 48 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 61 | 38 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 46 | 100 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 31 | 47 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −4.4 | 13.2 | 17.7 | 23 | 54 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Chile, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 1.3% Possible · rank 165 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 144 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 160 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 152 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 95 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 120 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 95 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Advanced Manufacturing 10 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3 |
| Health system failure | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 160 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 90 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 171 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 78 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.2 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 108 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Social Infrastructure 12.9 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 3 |
| Food and water failure | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Social Infrastructure 12.9 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.3 Established → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.9 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Advanced Manufacturing 10 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 52 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×5.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 3.3% Possible · rank 40 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.5 Foundational → Transitional | 3.0% Possible · rank 34 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Capable digital government | 12.8 Established → Established | 2.1% Possible · rank 39 | Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 39 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.4 Established → Established | 1.4% Possible · rank 40 | Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.4 Nascent → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.3 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 39 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 43 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Severe | ×2.2 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 40 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.2 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 12.7 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 34 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.0 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 11.2 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.3 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.0 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Secure food and water supply | 13.7 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 |
| Research translated into value | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.3 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 6.2 |
| Broad rise in national security | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 42 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 49 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 43 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 41 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |