Comoros
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 53.9
- rank 18 of 197 · 3 years: 53.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.3
- rank 131 of 197 · 3 years: −10.3
- Shock absorbed
- 10%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Comoros’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.83 | −1.06 | −1.19 | −0.54 | ▼ 5 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.69 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.40 | 0 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.70 | −0.70 | −0.80 | −0.37 | 0 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.59 | −0.69 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.49 | −0.59 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.48 | −0.59 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.49 | −0.49 | −0.51 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.41 | −0.43 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.6 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.24 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 3 | 4 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.25 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −1.30 | −0.37 | −1.34 | −1.26 | −1.37 | −1.46 | −1.08 | −1.25 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.11 | −1.04 | −0.52 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −1.10 | −0.94 | −1.18 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.50 | −0.59 | −0.45 | −1.03 | −1.46 | −1.20 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.00 | −0.26 | −0.84 | −0.38 | −0.94 | −1.00 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| AI labour shock | −0.11 | −0.33 | · | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.11 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.85 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.11 | −0.42 | −0.47 | · | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.09 | −0.30 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −0.99 | −0.69 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.37 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.07 | −0.42 | −0.35 | · | −0.47 | −0.48 | · | −0.17 | −0.17 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Comoros is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 6 | 120 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +2.0 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 7 | 91 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 10 | 136 | Intelligence & Assessment 1 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.7 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 15 | 150 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −12.6 | 3.6 | 16.2 | 8 | 188 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.1 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 6 | 114 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −13.8 | 6.5 | 20.3 | 11 | 132 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −17.0 | 2.8 | 19.9 | 9 | 165 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −21.1 | 7.0 | 28.2 | 8 | 183 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −24.3 | 0.9 | 25.2 | 2 | 128 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Comoros, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 13 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 92 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.7 |
| Health system failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 16 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Major | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 132 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Major | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 54 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 173 | Global funding seizure Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 10 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 166 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5 | ×24 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |