Cyprus
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 18.8
- rank 115 of 197 · 3 years: 18.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +3.5
- rank 61 of 197 · 3 years: +3.7
- Shock absorbed
- 35%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.24
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; services as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Cyprus’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.99 | −1.04 | −1.44 | −0.63 | ▼ 2 | 28 | Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.91 | −0.83 | −1.14 | −0.50 | 0 | 24 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.88 | −0.82 | −1.30 | −0.57 | 0 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.83 | −0.82 | −1.28 | −0.56 | 0 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.94 | −0.67 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Economic Output & Productivity 6.9 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.60 | −0.60 | −0.87 | −0.39 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.73 | −0.59 | −0.81 | −0.36 | 0 | 18 | Maritime Power 2.1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.50 | −0.44 | −0.78 | −0.34 | 0 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 5.7 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.44 | −0.79 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.45 | −0.35 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.5 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.57 | −1.39 | −1.28 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.34 | −1.25 | −1.07 | −1.38 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.02 | −0.59 | −1.09 | · | −1.32 | −1.24 | −1.16 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| AI labour shock | −0.86 | −0.41 | · | −1.10 | −0.97 | −1.14 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.83 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −1.07 | −0.94 | −1.00 | −0.94 | −0.92 | −0.92 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.40 | −0.45 | · | −0.45 | −0.40 | −0.91 | −1.48 | −1.04 | −0.93 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.77 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.31 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.96 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.43 | −0.96 | −0.96 | · | −1.07 | −1.10 | · | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.23 | −0.55 | −0.19 | −0.51 | −0.49 | −0.53 | −0.56 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.66 | −0.21 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.63 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.65 | −0.54 | −0.20 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Cyprus is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +26.1 | 28.3 | 2.2 | 35 | 51 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +14.3 | 21.0 | 6.6 | 38 | 53 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.8 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +12.1 | 21.3 | 9.2 | 26 | 72 | Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 23.0 | 15.4 | 43 | 43 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 36 | 64 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 18 | 50 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.7 | 24.9 | 26.6 | 36 | 88 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 13.2 | 15.5 | 25 | 56 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 34 | 122 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 44 | 169 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Cyprus, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 7.0% Likely · rank 7 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 3.4% Possible · rank 27 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 3.2% Possible · rank 3 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 2.6% Possible · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 11 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 2.0% Possible · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 17 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 32 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 12 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 11 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 7 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.4 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 38 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 4 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 8 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.4 |
| Food and water failure | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Resource Infrastructure 3.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 27 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 8 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 68 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 69 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.7 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 58 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Capable digital government | 11.7 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.3 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 61 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 2.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 11.3 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 65 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.0 Foundational → Foundational | — Remote · rank 67 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |