Europe · DNK

Denmark

Baseline index 13.94Rank 18 of 197EstablishedEuropeAtlas profileAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years
7.2
rank 180 of 197 · 3 years: 7.1
Worst case
−4.2%
Severe pandemic · tail −4.0%
Opportunity · 10 years
+28.0
rank 16 of 197 · 3 years: +28.2
Best case
+60
Outbreak defence succeeds · gainer in 9 of 10
Shock absorbed
56%
by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend
+0.05
expected index points from best practice
Breadth
10of 10
scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link
Information Environment & Strategic Communication
weakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Denmark’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Severe pandemic (S10)
Cryptographic trust break (S09)
Regional war spillover (S03)
AI labour shock (S08)
Trade bloc rupture (S01)
Hybrid coercion (S04)
Global funding seizure (S02)
Breadbasket failure (S06)
Core disaster (S07)
Legitimacy rupture (S05)

−0.58

−0.57

−0.52

−0.51

−0.48

−0.46

−0.32

−0.27

−0.24

−0.20

ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Severe pandemic S10High 0.90−0.58−1.40−0.56014Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.9 · Transitional
Cryptographic trust break S09High 0.91−0.57−1.16−0.48018Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 · Foundational
Regional war spillover S03High 0.70−0.52−1.02−0.43▲ 117Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.9 · Nascent
AI labour shock S08High 0.86−0.51−1.27−0.48▲ 115Artificial Intelligence 10 · Transitional
Trade bloc rupture S01High 0.68−0.48−1.01−0.43▲ 114Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent
Hybrid coercion S04High 0.78−0.46−0.87−0.37013Maritime Power 8.8 · Foundational
Global funding seizure S02High 0.63−0.32−0.78−0.31012Economic Output & Productivity 13.7 · Established
Breadbasket failure S06Medium 0.41−0.27−0.65−0.26010Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Core disaster S07Medium 0.46−0.24−0.64−0.24▲ 19Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Legitimacy rupture S05Medium 0.40−0.20−0.52−0.1909Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.5 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCT Critical TechnologySI Strategic InfrastructureNS National SecurityHC Human CapitalII Information & InfluenceGI Governance & IntegrityFS Financial StrengthPI Production & InnovationTI Trade & Investment
Severe pandemic−0.62−0.31−0.25−0.75−0.66−0.70−0.66−0.64−0.64
Cryptographic trust break−0.74−0.40−0.74·−0.89−0.84−0.78−0.34−0.38
Regional war spillover−0.29−0.70−0.64−0.27−0.27−0.67−0.62−0.53−0.69
AI labour shock−0.57−0.26·−0.69−0.60−0.71−0.60−0.59−0.59
Trade bloc rupture−0.62−0.24−0.22−0.24−0.56−0.54−0.56−0.55−0.75
Hybrid coercion−0.34−0.74−0.74·−0.82−0.85·−0.31−0.31
Global funding seizure−0.19−0.21·−0.22−0.19−0.44−0.71−0.50−0.44
Breadbasket failure−0.14−0.33−0.12−0.31−0.30−0.32−0.34−0.26−0.29
Core disaster−0.01−0.36−0.11−0.28−0.13−0.32−0.34−0.29−0.29
Legitimacy rupture−0.12−0.13−0.24−0.12−0.28−0.38−0.31−0.12−0.13
Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Denmark is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗Gainer+59.960.90.9709Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · Established
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗Gainer+42.952.79.87911Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15 · Advanced
Clean power threshold S15 ↗Gainer+33.836.22.45926Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
Automated discovery step S17 ↗Gainer+32.440.88.44621Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S14 ↗Gainer+24.026.12.16329Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
Market access opening S12 ↗Gainer+21.832.810.96514Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
Great-power détente S13 ↗Gainer+19.526.97.44819Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
Public service leap S18 ↗Gainer+13.415.62.27020Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗Gainer+12.518.15.67832Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
Debt service reset S11 ↗Mixed−3.91.05.067152Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Denmark, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failureBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Breakdown of state function17.0 Advanced → Established1.9% Possible · rank 137Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×2.8Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 10.3
Strategic awareness failure10.8 Transitional → Foundational1.2% Possible · rank 39Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.7Quantum Technologies 10
Broad fall in governance and integrity17.0 Advanced → Established1.0% Possible · rank 124Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.5Quantum Technologies 10
Loss of financial stability16.1 Advanced → Established0.9% Unlikely · rank 157Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail×3.6Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.2
Breakdown of information trust14.0 Established → Transitional0.8% Unlikely · rank 62Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 10
Broad fall in information and influence13.1 Established → Transitional0.7% Unlikely · rank 51Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 10
Diplomatic isolation14.8 Established → Transitional0.6% Unlikely · rank 54Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 10
Failure of digital lifelines14.5 Established → Transitional0.6% Unlikely · rank 30Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 10
Health system failure16.7 Advanced → Established0.5% Unlikely · rank 99Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail×2.7Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad fall in financial strength15.6 Advanced → Established0.5% Unlikely · rank 155Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.8Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.2
Collapse in energy security9.9 Transitional → Foundational0.5% Unlikely · rank 67Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.4Resource Infrastructure 9.8
Broad fall in trade and investment15.1 Advanced → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 81Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail×4.0Advanced Manufacturing 13.2
Rupture in trade and supply15.0 Advanced → Transitional0.4% Unlikely · rank 137Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×3.2Resource Infrastructure 9.8
Broad fall in national security8.7 Foundational → Nascent0.3% Unlikely · rank 41Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×4.1Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 10.3
Rule of law failure17.2 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 159Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 10
Loss of advanced technology base7.6 Foundational → Nascent0.3% Unlikely · rank 8Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.2Quantum Technologies 10
Broad fall in critical technology9.9 Transitional → Foundational0.3% Unlikely · rank 16Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.1Quantum Technologies 10
Defence readiness failure10.8 Transitional → Foundational0.3% Unlikely · rank 52Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×3.9Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 10.3
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure13.4 Established → Transitional0.3% Unlikely · rank 88Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×4.1Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 10.3
Loss of industrial capacity15.2 Advanced → Established0.2% Unlikely · rank 104Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.7Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad fall in production and innovation15.9 Advanced → Established0.2% Unlikely · rank 89Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.7Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad fall in human capital16.8 Advanced → Established0.2% Remote · rank 50Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.0Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Education pipeline failure17.0 Advanced → Established0.1% Remote · rank 52Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.3Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Food and water failure15.2 Advanced → Establishedunder 0.1% Remote · rank 176Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail×4.9Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.2
Loss of strategic deterrence3.6 Nascent— No route · rank 44No route found · closest 3.0 of 3×5.6—
Routes to prosperityBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Stronger health and biotechnology16.1 Advanced → Advanced13% Likely · rank 17Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.0Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Frontier AI and compute8.1 Foundational → Transitional11% Likely · rank 18Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Capable digital government16.8 Advanced → Frontier8.3% Likely · rank 21Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in governance and integrity17.0 Advanced → Frontier7.9% Likely · rank 20Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · reaches Frontier
Trusted public institutions17.0 Advanced → Frontier7.7% Likely · rank 20Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · reaches Frontier
Research translated into value16.4 Advanced → Advanced6.9% Likely · rank 17Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad rise in critical technology9.9 Transitional → Transitional6.0% Likely · rank 19Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad rise in human capital16.8 Advanced → Frontier5.3% Likely · rank 16Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · reaches Frontier
Reliable low-cost energy9.9 Transitional → Transitional5.2% Likely · rank 18Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4Energy Technologies 9.4
Broad rise in trade and investment15.1 Advanced → Advanced3.5% Possible · rank 18Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Higher-value manufacturing12.5 Established → Established3.0% Possible · rank 22Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2
Sophisticated export strength15.2 Advanced → Advanced2.9% Possible · rank 20Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Higher-value international business15.4 Advanced → Advanced2.6% Possible · rank 19Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad rise in production and innovation15.9 Advanced → Advanced2.5% Possible · rank 19Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure13.4 Established → Advanced2.1% Possible · rank 22Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Adaptable skilled workforce17.3 Advanced → Frontier2.0% Possible · rank 20Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12 · reaches Frontier
Secure food and water supply15.2 Advanced → Advanced1.9% Possible · rank 20Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Stronger information environment11.5 Transitional → Established1.5% Possible · rank 16Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Wider international influence14.8 Established → Advanced0.9% Unlikely · rank 20Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad rise in financial strength15.6 Advanced → Advanced0.8% Unlikely · rank 23Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.6Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15
Assured space services6.9 Foundational → Foundational0.8% Unlikely · rank 21Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.9Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Broad rise in information and influence13.1 Established → Advanced0.8% Unlikely · rank 23Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.4Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12
Deeper long-term finance15.2 Advanced → Advanced0.7% Unlikely · rank 23Clean power threshold Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme×2.2Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15
Broad rise in national security8.7 Foundational → Transitionalunder 0.1% Remote · rank 23Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.5Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2
More deployable joint force11.0 Transitional → Establishedunder 0.1% Remote · rank 23Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.5Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2