Djibouti
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 54.6
- rank 17 of 197 · 3 years: 54.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −7.1
- rank 104 of 197 · 3 years: −7.1
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.38
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; youth unemployment rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves; little renewable water per head; refugees hosted per head of population; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Djibouti’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.90 | −1.11 | −1.35 | −0.60 | ▼ 10 | 29 | Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.88 | −1.02 | −1.23 | −0.54 | ▼ 6 | 28 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.3 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.86 | −0.99 | −1.16 | −0.52 | ▼ 6 | 25 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.93 | −1.09 | −0.48 | ▼ 5 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.83 | −0.89 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 4 | 21 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.80 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.74 | −0.74 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 5 | 20 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.6 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.66 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.33 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.59 | −0.67 | −0.30 | 0 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.38 | −0.35 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▼ 2 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −1.45 | −0.50 | −1.36 | −1.30 | −1.39 | −1.48 | −1.11 | −1.27 |
| Core disaster | −0.05 | −1.53 | −0.49 | −1.22 | −0.55 | −1.37 | −1.46 | −1.25 | −1.25 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −1.40 | −1.18 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −1.36 | −1.27 | −1.09 | −1.40 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.19 | −0.55 | −0.45 | −1.33 | −1.16 | −1.25 | −1.16 | −1.14 | −1.14 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.60 | −1.07 | −0.54 | −1.26 | −1.76 | −1.44 | −0.54 | −0.62 |
| AI labour shock | −0.19 | −0.45 | · | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.23 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.15 | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.47 | −1.05 | −1.71 | −1.20 | −1.06 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.19 | −0.54 | −0.98 | · | −1.21 | −1.13 | −1.06 | −0.45 | −0.52 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.18 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.78 | −0.75 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −1.05 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.12 | −0.59 | −0.59 | · | −0.66 | −0.68 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Djibouti is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 19 | 78 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 9 | 107 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 10 | 78 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.7 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 17 | 90 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −7.0 | 8.1 | 15.1 | 11 | 171 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 5.0 | 13.5 | 11 | 87 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.0 | 14.7 | 23.7 | 18 | 108 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −11.5 | 4.2 | 15.7 | 11 | 135 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −19.8 | 9.1 | 28.9 | 11 | 180 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −25.2 | 1.6 | 26.8 | 4 | 134 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Djibouti, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 6.5% Likely · rank 10 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 5.6% Likely · rank 3 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 4.2% Possible · rank 1 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Food and water failure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 4.1% Possible · rank 1 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Major | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 4.1% Possible · rank 7 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7 |
| Health system failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.7% Possible · rank 1 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.7% Possible · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Resource Infrastructure 2 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 2 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 9 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 2 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 83 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×16 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 167 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 167 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 167 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |