Dominica
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 34.2
- rank 56 of 197 · 3 years: 33.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −11.9
- rank 140 of 197 · 3 years: −11.8
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 5of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Dominica’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.76 | −0.86 | −1.03 | −0.47 | ▼ 6 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.77 | −0.83 | −0.95 | −0.45 | 0 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.77 | −0.77 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.66 | −0.72 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.74 | −0.69 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.6 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.74 | −0.63 | −0.83 | −0.39 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.61 | −0.69 | −0.33 | 0 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.45 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 8 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.37 | −0.42 | −0.48 | −0.22 | ▲ 8 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.18 | 0 | 7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.29 | −1.25 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −1.11 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −1.25 | −1.16 | −1.00 | −1.28 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.13 | −0.27 | −0.95 | −0.43 | −1.07 | −1.14 | −0.98 | −0.98 |
| AI labour shock | −0.20 | −0.38 | · | −1.08 | −0.94 | −1.11 | −0.94 | −0.92 | −0.92 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.45 | · | −0.48 | −0.43 | −0.97 | −1.59 | −1.11 | −0.99 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.43 | −0.44 | −0.41 | −0.95 | −1.33 | −1.09 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.20 | −0.51 | −0.49 | · | −1.20 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.56 | −0.16 | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.57 | −0.60 | −0.45 | −0.52 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.17 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.75 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.62 | −0.45 | · | −0.73 | −0.75 | · | −0.27 | −0.27 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Dominica is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 11 | 104 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.6 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 13 | 126 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 27 | 97 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 16 | 140 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 11.4 | 19.3 | 20 | 101 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −8.7 | 9.6 | 18.4 | 17 | 120 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.6 | 2.8 | 17.3 | 9 | 128 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −18.4 | 4.8 | 23.3 | 12 | 184 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.2 | 2.2 | 23.4 | 4 | 105 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −24.9 | 12.2 | 37.1 | 15 | 187 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Dominica, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 3.2% Possible · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 38 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 39 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 85 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Major | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Health system failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 41 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 77 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 41 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Food and water failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×15 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 173 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×48 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 152 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |