Dominican Republic
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 18.5
- rank 116 of 197 · 3 years: 18.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −3.5
- rank 83 of 197 · 3 years: −3.1
- Shock absorbed
- 29%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.22
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; adult obesity rate; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Dominican Republic’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.71 | −0.76 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.70 | −0.76 | −1.07 | −0.47 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.79 | −0.72 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 5 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.71 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 1.9 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.70 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 21 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −0.38 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.69 | −0.60 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.52 | −0.44 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.9 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.41 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.43 | −0.37 | −0.48 | −0.21 | 0 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.43 | −1.02 | −0.94 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.79 | −1.01 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.76 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.09 | −0.35 | −0.86 | −0.39 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.89 | −0.89 |
| AI labour shock | −0.73 | −0.36 | · | −0.97 | −0.84 | −1.00 | −0.84 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.83 | −0.50 | −0.92 | · | −1.11 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.73 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.71 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.99 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.70 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −1.14 | −0.93 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.29 | · | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.59 | −0.96 | −0.68 | −0.60 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.22 | −0.51 | −0.18 | −0.48 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.28 | −0.60 | −0.60 | · | −0.67 | −0.69 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Dominican Republic is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +16.9 | 18.7 | 1.8 | 23 | 53 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.6 | 16.1 | 5.5 | 25 | 87 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 31 | 86 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.7 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 40 | 79 | Energy Infrastructure 6.9 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.6 | 15.5 | 16.2 | 27 | 79 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.7 | 20.7 | 23.3 | 26 | 94 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −7.3 | 9.8 | 17.1 | 26 | 133 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −7.9 | 20.1 | 28.0 | 39 | 102 | Energy Infrastructure 6.9 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.5 | 10.4 | 24.9 | 20 | 123 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −20.3 | 6.5 | 26.9 | 12 | 97 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Dominican Republic, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.9% Possible · rank 140 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 3.5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 95 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 83 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 130 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 101 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 3.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 76 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 69 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 3.5 |
| Health system failure | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 114 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 144 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 95 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 99 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 93 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Food and water failure | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 126 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 111 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 131 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 103 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 85 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 97 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 85 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 85 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.4 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.7 | Energy Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |