Ecuador
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 16.3
- rank 123 of 197 · 3 years: 16.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −17.0
- rank 170 of 197 · 3 years: −17.0
- Shock absorbed
- 28%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.20
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ecuador’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.88 | −0.82 | −1.23 | −0.54 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Energy Infrastructure 5.7 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.67 | −0.74 | −1.02 | −0.45 | 0 | 25 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.64 | −0.70 | −0.94 | −0.42 | 0 | 23 | Artificial Intelligence 1.6 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.65 | −0.67 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.66 | −0.59 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 20 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.6 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.58 | −0.79 | −0.35 | 0 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.62 | −0.58 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.6 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.36 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Monetary & Currency Capability 4.3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.32 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.27 | −0.27 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 8 | 14 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 1.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.23 | −0.40 | −0.98 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.17 | −1.01 | −1.01 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.76 | −0.40 | −0.32 | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| AI labour shock | −0.75 | −0.35 | · | −0.94 | −0.83 | −0.97 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.84 | −0.48 | −0.88 | · | −1.06 | −1.00 | −0.93 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.34 | −0.38 | −0.69 | −0.34 | −0.80 | −1.12 | −0.92 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.69 | −0.67 | −0.69 | −0.68 | −0.93 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.35 | −0.38 | · | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.78 | −1.27 | −0.89 | −0.79 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.43 | −0.45 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.53 | · | −0.58 | −0.60 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.36 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ecuador is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +12.0 | 17.5 | 5.5 | 29 | 83 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +7.7 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 40 | 26 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 16.8 | 16.7 | 26 | 75 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −7.5 | 19.7 | 27.3 | 36 | 99 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.2 | 10.1 | 18.3 | 30 | 139 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.2 | 19.3 | 27.5 | 30 | 118 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.0 | 8.8 | 22.8 | 19 | 118 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.2 | 6.5 | 27.7 | 13 | 103 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −36.2 | 4.2 | 40.3 | 35 | 185 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.8 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −51.0 | 7.5 | 58.5 | 25 | 180 | Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Ecuador, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 2.0% Possible · rank 84 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 157 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 103 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 136 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 92 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 108 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 138 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 86 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 55 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 44 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 153 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Food and water failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 113 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 94 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 80 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 87 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 98 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 87 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 116 | Core disaster Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 87 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |