Eswatini
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 35.3
- rank 52 of 197 · 3 years: 35.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.4
- rank 132 of 197 · 3 years: −10.5
- Shock absorbed
- 16%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; youth unemployment rate; low life expectancy at birth; industry as a share of gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Eswatini’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.78 | −0.89 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.82 | −0.83 | −0.97 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.56 | −0.65 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.54 | −0.64 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.63 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.4 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.51 | −0.62 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 6 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2.3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.57 | −0.57 | −0.63 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.46 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 7 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.29 | −0.26 | −0.30 | −0.13 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.24 | −1.29 | −0.69 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −1.26 | −1.18 | −1.01 | −1.30 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.24 | −0.57 | −0.74 | −0.52 | −1.20 | −1.69 | −1.39 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| AI labour shock | −0.28 | −0.35 | · | −0.94 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −0.82 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.31 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.20 | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.39 | −0.88 | −1.44 | −1.01 | −0.90 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.80 | −0.22 | −0.76 | −0.72 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.62 | −0.71 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.32 | −0.46 | −0.66 | · | −1.03 | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.30 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.31 | −0.72 | −0.69 | −0.72 | −0.70 | −0.97 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.69 | −0.17 | −0.55 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.45 | −0.34 | · | −0.51 | −0.52 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Eswatini is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.3 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 12 | 87 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 14 | 80 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 18 | 106 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.5 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 24 | 70 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −7.4 | 5.9 | 13.2 | 15 | 113 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −7.5 | 6.9 | 14.4 | 14 | 172 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 3.6 | 11.9 | 10 | 85 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −16.1 | 11.1 | 27.2 | 14 | 168 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.0 | 16.4 | 42.4 | 23 | 172 | Digital & Services Trade 4.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −36.8 | 2.0 | 38.8 | 5 | 177 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Eswatini, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 2.8% Possible · rank 46 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 91 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 42 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 99 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 150 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Food and water failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 103 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 111 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 162 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 175 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×2.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |