Ethiopia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.6
- rank 102 of 197 · 3 years: 20.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −1.3
- rank 70 of 197 · 3 years: −1.1
- Shock absorbed
- 23%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.23
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ethiopia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.74 | −0.88 | −1.16 | −0.51 | ▼ 5 | 32 | Internal Security & Order 4.3 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.79 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 4 | 26 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.8 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.66 | −0.75 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▲ 2 | 28 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.67 | −0.70 | −0.94 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 28 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.52 | −0.51 | −0.65 | −0.28 | 0 | 16 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.4 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.40 | −0.48 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 5 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.38 | −0.45 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 6 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 2.4 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.39 | −0.42 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 5 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.36 | −0.40 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 4 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.20 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 5 | 9 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.46 | −1.10 | −0.38 | −1.03 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −1.13 | −0.84 | −0.96 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.46 | −0.51 | −0.88 | −0.46 | −1.08 | −1.50 | −1.23 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.43 | −1.02 | −0.84 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.79 | −1.01 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.05 | −0.34 | −0.83 | −0.37 | −0.94 | −1.00 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.69 | −1.12 | −0.79 | −0.70 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.51 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.61 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.53 |
| AI labour shock | −0.50 | −0.23 | · | −0.61 | −0.53 | −0.63 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.54 | −0.30 | −0.54 | · | −0.66 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.25 | −0.28 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.48 | −0.46 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.64 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.28 | · | −0.31 | −0.32 | · | −0.11 | −0.11 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ethiopia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.4 | 21.7 | 5.3 | 33 | 48 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +15.8 | 19.1 | 3.3 | 24 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +14.6 | 16.2 | 1.6 | 19 | 63 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +10.4 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 30 | 11 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.9 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 25 | 96 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −3.0 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 25 | 153 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.2 | 19.6 | 24.8 | 21 | 100 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.8 | 5.1 | 14.8 | 18 | 94 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −10.0 | 18.0 | 27.9 | 31 | 116 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5.7 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −26.9 | 3.6 | 30.5 | 12 | 142 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Ethiopia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 2.2% Possible · rank 115 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 110 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Food and water failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 21 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 92 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 129 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.0 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Health system failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 90 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 39 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 96 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 125 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 95 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 134 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 135 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 122 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 89 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 147 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Defence readiness failure | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 103 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.9 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×4.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 6.4 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 86 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.8 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×3.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |