France
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 5.1
- rank 194 of 197 · 3 years: 5.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +38.7
- rank 6 of 197 · 3 years: +39.0
- Shock absorbed
- 62%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.00
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in France’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.84 | −0.50 | −1.25 | −0.50 | 0 | 13 | Labour & Employment 14 · Established |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.86 | −0.48 | −1.27 | −0.46 | 0 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.46 | −1.26 | −0.46 | 0 | 5 | Labour & Employment 14.1 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.43 | −1.13 | −0.43 | 0 | 7 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 15 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.79 | −0.41 | −1.12 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.78 | −0.36 | −0.97 | −0.36 | 0 | 3 | Labour & Employment 14.1 · Established |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.75 | −0.29 | −0.84 | −0.29 | 0 | 5 | Internal Security & Order 14.9 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.48 | −0.27 | −0.72 | −0.27 | 0 | 4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.3 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.46 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.24 | 0 | 3 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15.1 · Advanced |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.40 | −0.24 | −0.62 | −0.24 | 0 | 3 | Internal Security & Order 15.2 · Advanced |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.55 | −0.25 | · | −0.67 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.64 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.57 | −0.49 | −0.63 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.51 | −0.55 | −0.51 | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.61 | · | −0.67 | −0.63 | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.29 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.62 | −0.22 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.22 | −0.24 | · | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.49 | −0.80 | −0.56 | −0.50 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.47 | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.54 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.43 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.16 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.26 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what France is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +64.6 | 65.3 | 0.7 | 84 | 4 | Health System Capability 16.7 · Advanced |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +59.6 | 67.0 | 7.3 | 78 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +59.1 | 59.2 | 0.1 | 71 | 4 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +44.4 | 60.7 | 16.3 | 84 | 9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +41.9 | 42.4 | 0.5 | 82 | 2 | Internal Security & Order 15.7 · Advanced |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +26.1 | 31.9 | 5.8 | 81 | 9 | Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +25.6 | 31.4 | 5.8 | 80 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · Established |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +18.3 | 21.4 | 3.1 | 80 | 11 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 16.5 | 6.7 | 80 | 39 | Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.3 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 79 | 54 | Foundational Education 15.3 · Advanced |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for France, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 1.5% Possible · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 16.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 1.4% Possible · rank 124 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 155 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 140 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 17.4 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 133 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 17.3 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 120 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.7 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 15.1 Advanced → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.7 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 17.4 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.9 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 81 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×5.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 15.7 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 161 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 113 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.7 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 17.7 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 93 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 16.0 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 82 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 18.0 Frontier → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 99 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Health system failure | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 180 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.6 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 |
| Food and water failure | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 16.5 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.4 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 16.2 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×6.0 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.0 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 100 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 15.3 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 26% Highly likely · rank 1 | Chronic disease advance Severe | ×0.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Capable digital government | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 24% Likely · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 23% Likely · rank 1 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 22% Likely · rank 4 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×0.8 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Frontier AI and compute | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 20% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 |
| Research translated into value | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 19% Likely · rank 1 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 17% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 16.0 Advanced → Advanced | 14% Likely · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Health System Capability 16.7 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.1 Advanced → Frontier | 14% Likely · rank 9 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Sophisticated export strength | 17.0 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 11% Likely · rank 6 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Health System Capability 16.7 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 16.0 Advanced → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 7 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 9.4% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Secure food and water supply | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 8.2% Likely · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Health System Capability 16.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 7.3% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Health System Capability 16.7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 6.0% Likely · rank 1 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 16.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 4.6% Possible · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Deeper long-term finance | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 4.0% Possible · rank 5 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 12.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger information environment | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 3.8% Possible · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in national security | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 3.1% Possible · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| More deployable joint force | 17.5 Advanced → Frontier | 3.0% Possible · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 17.7 Advanced → Frontier | 1.5% Possible · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Wider international influence | 18.0 Frontier → Frontier | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.4 | Health System Capability 16.7 · reaches Frontier |