Gabon
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 32.3
- rank 63 of 197 · 3 years: 32.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −25.5
- rank 186 of 197 · 3 years: −25.8
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 5of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Gabon’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.75 | −0.90 | −1.08 | −0.48 | ▼ 9 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.74 | −0.78 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 5 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.5 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.77 | −0.76 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 7 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.1 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.71 | −0.84 | −0.38 | ▼ 6 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.55 | −0.64 | −0.76 | −0.34 | 0 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.59 | −0.62 | −0.68 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.48 | −0.53 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.42 | −0.52 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.34 | −0.38 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 12 | 6 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.42 | −0.38 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▼ 2 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.42 | −1.24 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.26 | −0.52 | −0.94 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.52 | −1.25 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.52 | · | −0.52 | −0.47 | −1.06 | −1.72 | −1.21 | −1.07 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.44 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −0.88 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −1.23 |
| AI labour shock | −0.38 | −0.34 | · | −0.92 | −0.80 | −0.95 | −0.80 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.41 | −0.47 | −0.87 | · | −1.05 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.80 | −0.26 | −0.63 | −0.29 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.18 | −0.66 | −0.23 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.14 | −0.52 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.47 | −0.40 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.19 | −0.64 | −0.64 | · | −0.71 | −0.73 | · | −0.27 | −0.27 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Gabon is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 15 | 89 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 23 | 94 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 10.9 | 14.1 | 15 | 154 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −9.3 | 6.3 | 15.6 | 16 | 124 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.2 | 5.1 | 18.3 | 11 | 115 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −17.1 | 10.0 | 27.1 | 14 | 171 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −29.9 | 16.5 | 46.4 | 22 | 186 | Technical & Vocational Skills 4 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −39.6 | 2.4 | 42.0 | 5 | 187 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −40.3 | 4.6 | 45.0 | 21 | 189 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −62.2 | 6.1 | 68.3 | 14 | 186 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Gabon, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 3.5% Possible · rank 24 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 136 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 36 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 89 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 53 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Health system failure | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 75 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 74 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Severe | ×2.5 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 60 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 49 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 126 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 154 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 92 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Food and water failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 170 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 140 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×4.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |