Ghana
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.6
- rank 129 of 197 · 3 years: 15.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −7.2
- rank 105 of 197 · 3 years: −7.2
- Shock absorbed
- 29%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.19
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global funding seizure, Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged under 15; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ghana’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.77 | −0.68 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 11 | Labour & Employment 5.1 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.60 | −0.67 | −0.93 | −0.41 | 0 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.63 | −0.97 | −0.43 | 0 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.2 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.57 | −0.63 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.57 | −0.61 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 3.1 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.59 | −0.61 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.47 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.41 | −0.44 | −0.61 | −0.27 | 0 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.36 | −0.30 | −0.40 | −0.18 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.28 | −0.29 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▲ 7 | 8 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 1.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global funding seizure | −0.41 | −0.45 | · | −0.45 | −0.41 | −0.92 | −1.50 | −1.05 | −0.93 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.71 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.73 | −0.37 | −0.86 | −1.19 | −0.98 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.33 | −0.78 | −0.27 | −0.74 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.60 | −0.69 |
| AI labour shock | −0.68 | −0.31 | · | −0.82 | −0.72 | −0.85 | −0.72 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.79 | −0.43 | −0.79 | · | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.71 | −0.23 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.67 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.57 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.52 | −0.50 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.70 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.48 | −0.48 | · | −0.54 | −0.55 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.29 | −0.38 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ghana is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +17.7 | 23.6 | 5.9 | 41 | 1 | Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +16.1 | 19.1 | 3.0 | 31 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 17.9 | 10.7 | 31 | 100 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 24.3 | 18.6 | 29 | 53 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 12.0 | 13.7 | 32 | 87 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −2.9 | 26.2 | 29.1 | 39 | 79 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.3 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.2 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 21 | 60 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −18.6 | 11.9 | 30.5 | 36 | 171 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.7 | 6.6 | 28.3 | 14 | 110 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −35.5 | 9.9 | 45.5 | 26 | 169 | Energy Technologies 3 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Ghana, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.4% Possible · rank 63 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 77 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 170 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 157 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Health system failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 97 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 122 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 104 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 79 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 4.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 108 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Food and water failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 122 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 121 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 94 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 178 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 134 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 103 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 83 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 96 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 83 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 83 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 67 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 66 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 7.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 87 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |