Guinea
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 44.1
- rank 32 of 197 · 3 years: 44.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.5
- rank 145 of 197 · 3 years: −12.3
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; staple foods among the top five imports; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Guinea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.74 | −0.94 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.75 | −0.88 | −1.03 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.83 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.69 | −0.79 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.67 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 1.7 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.65 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.41 | −0.50 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.43 | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.38 | −0.44 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Financial System Depth & Access 2.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.25 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.12 | ▲ 3 | 4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.24 | −1.21 | −0.42 | −1.14 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.24 | −0.93 | −1.07 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.24 | −1.24 | −0.99 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.19 | −1.11 | −0.95 | −1.23 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.94 | −0.50 | −1.17 | −1.63 | −1.34 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.33 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.22 | −0.46 | · | −0.46 | −0.41 | −0.93 | −1.52 | −1.06 | −0.95 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.84 | −0.81 | −0.84 | −0.83 | −1.14 |
| AI labour shock | −0.25 | −0.27 | · | −0.73 | −0.64 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.30 | −0.35 | −0.65 | · | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.69 | −0.29 | −0.34 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.66 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.63 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.39 | −0.39 | · | −0.43 | −0.45 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Guinea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 12 | 74 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 20 | 67 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −1.4 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 10 | 134 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 17 | 135 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.5 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −9.1 | 6.4 | 15.5 | 12 | 180 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 4.0 | 14.5 | 13 | 128 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −17.7 | 10.6 | 28.3 | 12 | 176 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.4 | 4.1 | 22.5 | 9 | 159 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −23.8 | 12.2 | 36.1 | 17 | 169 | Digital & Services Trade 2.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −34.6 | 1.3 | 35.9 | 4 | 173 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Guinea, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 32 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 83 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 32 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Major | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 52 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Food and water failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 27 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Health system failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 37 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 100 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 112 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |