Guyana
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 24.5
- rank 89 of 197 · 3 years: 24.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −30.1
- rank 193 of 197 · 3 years: −30.4
- Shock absorbed
- 20%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.23
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Guyana’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.62 | −0.73 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.77 | −0.72 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.7 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.68 | −0.83 | −0.37 | 0 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.68 | −0.64 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▲ 4 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.8 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.57 | −0.58 | −0.65 | −0.30 | ▲ 6 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.49 | −0.55 | −0.67 | −0.30 | ▲ 5 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.45 | −0.48 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.35 | −0.39 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 11 | 10 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.32 | −0.38 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 5 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.34 | −0.31 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.49 | · | −0.49 | −0.45 | −1.00 | −1.63 | −1.15 | −1.02 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.37 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −0.38 | −0.88 | −0.85 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −1.19 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.22 | −0.42 | −0.74 | −0.38 | −0.89 | −1.24 | −1.02 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.37 | −0.45 | −0.80 | · | −0.99 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| AI labour shock | −0.32 | −0.30 | · | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.72 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.14 | −0.53 | −0.48 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.48 | −0.41 | −0.53 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.52 | −0.52 | · | −0.58 | −0.60 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Guyana is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 16 | 131 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.9 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 27 | 171 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.6 | 7.7 | 19.2 | 17 | 146 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −16.2 | 5.4 | 21.5 | 12 | 138 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −18.5 | 11.0 | 29.5 | 17 | 168 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −19.0 | 2.9 | 22.0 | 16 | 186 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −29.2 | 14.8 | 44.0 | 24 | 185 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −38.1 | 2.8 | 40.9 | 5 | 184 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −40.9 | 4.1 | 45.0 | 21 | 191 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.8 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −60.2 | 5.5 | 65.7 | 14 | 184 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Guyana, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 111 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 167 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 89 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 173 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 97 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Advanced Manufacturing 3.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 153 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Health system failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 148 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 72 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 139 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 92 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 165 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Advanced Manufacturing 3.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×3.0 | Advanced Manufacturing 3.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 175 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Food and water failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 185 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×4.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 2.2 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 188 | AI labour shock Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |