Hungary
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 12.9
- rank 147 of 197 · 3 years: 12.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +15.6
- rank 31 of 197 · 3 years: +15.9
- Shock absorbed
- 41%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.16
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Hungary’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.89 | −0.81 | −1.27 | −0.56 | 0 | 31 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.88 | −0.77 | −1.36 | −0.60 | 0 | 26 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.8 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.81 | −0.70 | −1.21 | −0.53 | ▼ 1 | 25 | Artificial Intelligence 5.9 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.70 | −1.10 | −0.48 | 0 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.9 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.83 | −0.58 | −1.04 | −0.46 | 0 | 20 | Economic Output & Productivity 9.6 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.66 | −0.57 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.74 | −0.49 | −0.81 | −0.36 | 0 | 20 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.65 | −0.48 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 25 | Transport Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.51 | −0.41 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.4 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.30 | −0.53 | −0.23 | 0 | 12 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.2 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.47 | −1.10 | −0.90 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −1.09 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.82 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| AI labour shock | −0.78 | −0.35 | · | −0.94 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −0.82 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.92 | −0.50 | −0.89 | · | −1.11 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.35 | −0.38 | · | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.79 | −1.28 | −0.90 | −0.80 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.75 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.68 | −0.65 | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.91 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.37 | −0.82 | −0.73 | · | −0.91 | −0.93 | · | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.73 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.47 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.77 | −0.63 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Hungary is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +42.6 | 44.5 | 2.0 | 53 | 25 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +38.3 | 38.6 | 0.3 | 49 | 19 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +28.9 | 30.0 | 1.1 | 52 | 20 | Intelligence & Assessment 9.5 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.6 | 45.5 | 30.9 | 55 | 42 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +12.9 | 31.0 | 18.1 | 36 | 31 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 29.2 | 18.8 | 59 | 35 | Transport Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +7.3 | 21.1 | 13.8 | 40 | 30 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +6.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 47 | 52 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 55 | 103 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.6 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 53 | 134 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Hungary, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 4.4% Possible · rank 27 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 4.2% Possible · rank 15 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 36 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 44 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 20 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 50 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 19 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 31 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 24 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 31 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 15 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 11 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 25 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Food and water failure | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 74 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 11.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 6 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 19 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 15 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 53 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 92 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 7.4% Likely · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | 3.7% Possible · rank 25 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.3 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Capable digital government | 12.7 Established → Established | 3.6% Possible · rank 31 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 30 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 3.1% Possible · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 6.1 Foundational → Foundational | 2.0% Possible · rank 29 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 6.7 Foundational → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 27 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.8 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 27 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 |
| Research translated into value | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 26 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 25 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 27 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×2.0 | Transport Infrastructure 11.3 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 25 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×2.0 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.2 Established → Established | 1.0% Possible · rank 29 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 29 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.0 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 30 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 30 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 30 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 29 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Major | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 36 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 31 | Clean power threshold Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 28 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Wider international influence | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 31 | Great-power détente Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.0 | Intelligence & Assessment 9.5 |
| Assured space services | 4.7 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 31 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.8 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 29 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×3.0 | Intelligence & Assessment 9.5 |
| More deployable joint force | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 43 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |