Jamaica
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.5
- rank 104 of 197 · 3 years: 20.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −5.9
- rank 97 of 197 · 3 years: −5.6
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.23
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Jamaica’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.74 | −0.80 | −1.05 | −0.47 | 0 | 22 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.70 | −0.77 | −1.05 | −0.47 | ▲ 1 | 25 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.72 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▲ 1 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 0.8 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.69 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.67 | −1.00 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.75 | −0.63 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 4 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.53 | −0.58 | −0.75 | −0.34 | 0 | 20 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.52 | −0.79 | −0.35 | 0 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.37 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.7 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.43 | −1.09 | −0.89 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.84 | −1.08 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.68 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.01 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| AI labour shock | −0.67 | −0.37 | · | −0.99 | −0.87 | −1.02 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.74 | −0.51 | −0.90 | · | −1.13 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.43 | −0.77 | −0.40 | −0.92 | −1.28 | −1.05 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.42 | · | −0.42 | −0.38 | −0.85 | −1.39 | −0.98 | −0.87 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.61 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.95 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.79 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.47 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Jamaica is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.2 | 15.8 | 5.6 | 25 | 92 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +8.4 | 14.5 | 6.1 | 37 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +1.0 | 17.1 | 16.0 | 26 | 70 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 19.7 | 19.8 | 34 | 68 | Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 20 | 135 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −6.4 | 8.4 | 14.8 | 28 | 152 | Intelligence & Assessment 4 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 20.1 | 28.6 | 26 | 121 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.8 | 10.2 | 19.0 | 24 | 141 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.1 | 8.0 | 22.1 | 16 | 121 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.3 | 5.4 | 21.7 | 10 | 80 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Jamaica, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 9.0 Transitional → Foundational | 2.8% Possible · rank 47 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 2.5% Possible · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 52 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 113 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 83 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 71 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 34 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Health system failure | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 145 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 96 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 103 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 168 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Social Infrastructure 8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 137 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 138 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 105 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 95 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 95 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 95 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 97 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |