Libya
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 45.2
- rank 30 of 197 · 3 years: 44.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −30.1
- rank 194 of 197 · 3 years: −30.6
- Shock absorbed
- 12%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; industry as a share of gdp; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; refugees hosted per head of population; adult obesity rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Libya’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −1.01 | −1.15 | −0.52 | ▼ 8 | 28 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.91 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 6 | 25 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 0.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.76 | −0.86 | −0.39 | ▼ 4 | 23 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.58 | −0.74 | −0.82 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.64 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.49 | −0.64 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 25 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.5 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.46 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.6 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.7 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.39 | −0.47 | −0.56 | −0.24 | ▲ 6 | 18 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 1 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.44 | −0.42 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.63 | −0.57 | −0.46 | −1.37 | −1.20 | −1.29 | −1.20 | −1.18 | −1.18 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.38 | −0.60 | −1.04 | −0.54 | −1.27 | −1.76 | −1.45 | −0.54 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.62 | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.96 | −0.92 | −0.96 | −0.94 | −1.29 |
| AI labour shock | −0.52 | −0.40 | · | −1.05 | −0.92 | −1.09 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.94 | · | −1.18 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −0.44 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.25 | −0.81 | −0.28 | −0.76 | −0.72 | −0.77 | −0.83 | −0.62 | −0.71 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.83 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.36 | · | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.73 | −1.19 | −0.83 | −0.74 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −0.64 | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.50 | −0.64 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.23 | −0.70 | −0.70 | · | −0.77 | −0.80 | · | −0.29 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Libya is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 13 | 84 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.1 | 2.4 | 8.5 | 15 | 176 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.6 | 9.4 | 16.0 | 13 | 166 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −12.1 | 2.9 | 15.1 | 6 | 105 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.1 | 7.9 | 20.0 | 13 | 138 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −22.6 | 7.3 | 29.9 | 9 | 185 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −40.9 | 11.0 | 51.9 | 14 | 195 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −42.1 | 7.6 | 49.6 | 15 | 192 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −45.3 | 2.1 | 47.4 | 4 | 194 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −69.0 | 5.8 | 74.8 | 13 | 193 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Libya, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health system failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 15 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 162 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 179 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 2.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 23 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Food and water failure | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 147 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 167 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 64 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 2.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.1 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 178 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |