Lithuania
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 13.2
- rank 144 of 197 · 3 years: 13.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +12.2
- rank 36 of 197 · 3 years: +12.4
- Shock absorbed
- 44%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.15
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Lithuania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.96 | −0.86 | −1.40 | −0.61 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Maritime Power 3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.87 | −0.74 | −1.34 | −0.59 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.68 | −1.11 | −0.48 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.82 | −0.67 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 5.6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.93 | −0.60 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Maritime Power 3.1 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.63 | −0.54 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.47 | −0.92 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Economic Output & Productivity 9.4 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.35 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.33 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.43 | −0.28 | −0.55 | −0.24 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.15 | −1.06 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.03 | −0.88 | −1.13 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.79 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.88 | −0.48 | −0.88 | · | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.94 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| AI labour shock | −0.74 | −0.34 | · | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.93 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.45 | −0.97 | −0.97 | · | −1.08 | −1.11 | · | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.62 | −0.64 | −0.63 | −0.86 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.28 | −0.31 | · | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.64 | −1.04 | −0.73 | −0.65 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.52 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.52 | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Lithuania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +40.6 | 42.4 | 1.8 | 51 | 29 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +24.9 | 34.1 | 9.2 | 39 | 39 | Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +21.9 | 28.3 | 6.3 | 54 | 34 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +15.5 | 42.4 | 26.8 | 52 | 38 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 14.3 | 4.8 | 54 | 35 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +9.4 | 28.5 | 19.1 | 56 | 37 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 26.0 | 17.1 | 30 | 34 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 18.0 | 12.3 | 36 | 35 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −0.6 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 50 | 109 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 58 | 143 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Lithuania, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 5.2% Likely · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.7% Possible · rank 5 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 2.3% Possible · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 2.1% Possible · rank 38 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 2.1% Possible · rank 81 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 61 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 1.3% Possible · rank 21 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 38 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 17 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 22 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 7 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Health system failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 40 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 29 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Food and water failure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 8 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 22 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 6.6% Likely · rank 33 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 7.5 Foundational → Transitional | 3.4% Possible · rank 30 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 2.6% Possible · rank 33 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Capable digital government | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 2.6% Possible · rank 34 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 2.6% Possible · rank 34 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.2 Nascent → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 34 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 5.6 Nascent → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.0 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 29 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Stronger information environment | 10.4 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 29 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.0 Transitional → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 37 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Severe | ×2.1 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 |
| Research translated into value | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 33 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 36 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 36 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 32 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.5 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 30 | Clean power threshold Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 31 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 40 | Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 33 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Wider international influence | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 35 | Great-power détente Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.1 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 |
| Assured space services | 4.4 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 30 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 40 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 39 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |