Luxembourg
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 12.6
- rank 148 of 197 · 3 years: 12.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +14.7
- rank 32 of 197 · 3 years: +14.9
- Shock absorbed
- 44%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.15
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; services as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Luxembourg’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −0.97 | −1.40 | −0.61 | ▼ 5 | 20 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.93 | −0.77 | −1.43 | −0.62 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.95 | −0.75 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.2 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.92 | −0.70 | −1.38 | −0.59 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 5.6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.79 | −0.56 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 13 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.60 | −0.49 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.40 | −0.91 | −0.39 | 0 | 12 | Economic Output & Productivity 10 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.41 | −0.34 | −0.65 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6.6 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.46 | −0.29 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.46 | −0.28 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.57 | −1.34 | −0.92 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −1.29 | −1.20 | −1.03 | −1.32 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.83 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −1.00 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.99 | −0.54 | −0.90 | · | −1.20 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| AI labour shock | −0.77 | −0.35 | · | −0.94 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.43 | −0.93 | −0.78 | · | −1.04 | −1.07 | · | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.65 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.79 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.26 | · | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.88 | −0.62 | −0.55 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.13 | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.43 | −0.32 | −0.37 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.12 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.53 | −0.44 | −0.16 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Luxembourg is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +37.4 | 39.0 | 1.5 | 44 | 33 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +26.7 | 27.0 | 0.2 | 33 | 36 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +23.3 | 24.1 | 0.8 | 45 | 32 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.3 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +20.1 | 30.4 | 10.3 | 53 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +15.1 | 33.0 | 17.9 | 46 | 39 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +13.2 | 22.9 | 9.7 | 26 | 30 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 18.0 | 10.8 | 34 | 31 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +7.1 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 52 | 44 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.9 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 43 | 115 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 56 | 168 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Luxembourg, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 5.4% Likely · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 15.2 Advanced → Established | 3.0% Possible · rank 34 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 9 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 15.2 Advanced → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 54 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 14 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 22 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 1.3% Possible · rank 24 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 6 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 39 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 24 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Health system failure | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Food and water failure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 14.4 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 3.5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 55 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 51 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 2.2% Possible · rank 44 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Capable digital government | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 47 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 48 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Trusted public institutions | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 46 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.5 Nascent → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 41 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.4 Nascent → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 43 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.9 Nascent → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 36 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Severe | ×2.5 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 13.4 Established → Advanced | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 44 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Severe | ×2.1 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 |
| Research translated into value | 13.3 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 38 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 44 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Higher-value international business | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 41 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Severe | ×2.0 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 13.9 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.3 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Stronger information environment | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×3.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Wider international influence | 11.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.5 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.3 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Great-power détente Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 38 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 40 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 37 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |