Madagascar
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 34.5
- rank 55 of 197 · 3 years: 34.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −6.7
- rank 100 of 197 · 3 years: −6.5
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.29
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 3of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Madagascar’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.77 | −0.97 | −1.19 | −0.53 | ▼ 7 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.72 | −0.86 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.80 | −1.00 | −0.45 | ▼ 5 | 9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.4 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.68 | −0.76 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 5 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.52 | −0.66 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.54 | −0.55 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.52 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.52 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 6 | 8 | Artificial Intelligence 0.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.43 | −0.47 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 7 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.24 | −0.22 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 4 | 4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.38 | −1.22 | −0.42 | −1.15 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.25 | −0.94 | −1.07 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.38 | −1.18 | −0.98 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.14 | −1.06 | −0.91 | −1.17 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.52 | −0.92 | −0.47 | −1.11 | −1.54 | −1.26 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.15 | −0.37 | −0.91 | −0.41 | −1.02 | −1.09 | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.55 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.82 | −0.76 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.28 | −0.37 | · | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.75 | −1.23 | −0.86 | −0.77 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.51 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.63 | −0.62 | −0.85 |
| AI labour shock | −0.48 | −0.27 | · | −0.72 | −0.63 | −0.75 | −0.63 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.50 | −0.34 | −0.63 | · | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.37 | · | −0.41 | −0.42 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Madagascar is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +10.1 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 17 | 36 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +7.9 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 12 | 94 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.3 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 22 | 56 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 20 | 105 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.3 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.5 | 8.2 | 14.7 | 17 | 164 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −7.9 | 4.5 | 12.4 | 17 | 117 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 13.9 | 25.2 | 15 | 142 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.6 | 4.0 | 17.6 | 11 | 117 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.5 | 14.3 | 29.9 | 22 | 144 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −29.1 | 2.0 | 31.0 | 6 | 151 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Madagascar, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 5 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 84 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 65 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 32 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 98 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 90 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 43 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Major | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 76 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 69 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 2.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 30 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 16 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 108 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 129 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 129 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 128 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 2.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.8 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.6 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 148 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |