Mali
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 33.9
- rank 57 of 197 · 3 years: 33.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.1
- rank 108 of 197 · 3 years: −8.0
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.25
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Mali’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.71 | −0.84 | −0.97 | −0.44 | 0 | 25 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.72 | −0.75 | −0.89 | −0.40 | 0 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.2 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.65 | −0.79 | −0.34 | 0 | 25 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.51 | −0.64 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.45 | −0.58 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 6 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.54 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.54 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.45 | −0.49 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.32 | −0.39 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 6 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.27 | −0.25 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.31 | −1.19 | −0.87 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −0.92 | −1.18 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.30 | −0.50 | −0.80 | −0.46 | −1.06 | −1.48 | −1.22 | −0.46 | −0.52 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −0.98 | −0.28 | −0.78 | −0.35 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.45 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.86 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.24 | −0.74 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.66 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.57 | −0.65 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.36 | · | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.74 | −1.21 | −0.85 | −0.75 |
| AI labour shock | −0.36 | −0.28 | · | −0.76 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.66 | −0.65 | −0.65 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.62 | · | −0.83 | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.65 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.16 | −0.43 | −0.36 | · | −0.47 | −0.49 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Mali is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 20 | 80 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 10 | 100 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 14 | 76 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 20 | 66 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 14 | 95 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −8.7 | 6.5 | 15.2 | 14 | 179 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −10.8 | 2.1 | 12.8 | 9 | 100 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −17.3 | 10.7 | 28.0 | 11 | 174 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −19.1 | 11.8 | 31.0 | 17 | 158 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −31.0 | 1.6 | 32.6 | 5 | 159 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Mali, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 115 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 166 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 140 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 143 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Health system failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 130 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 145 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 158 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 135 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Food and water failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 119 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 171 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 185 | Core disaster Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 171 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 2.2 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 168 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.7 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 177 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |