Micronesia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 66.6
- rank 11 of 197 · 3 years: 66.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.2
- rank 142 of 197 · 3 years: −11.6
- Shock absorbed
- 11%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.35
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 3of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; adult obesity rate; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Micronesia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.93 | −0.99 | −1.09 | −0.52 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.67 | −0.85 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.70 | −0.84 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 5 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.58 | −0.70 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.72 | −0.66 | −0.69 | −0.33 | ▼ 2 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.64 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▼ 4 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.67 | −0.62 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.57 | −0.67 | −0.30 | 0 | 13 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.24 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.36 | −0.39 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.11 | −1.31 | −0.41 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −1.56 | −1.46 | −1.22 | −1.61 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −1.05 | −0.24 | −1.08 | −1.03 | −1.10 | −1.18 | −0.88 | −1.01 |
| AI labour shock | −0.11 | −0.46 | · | −1.27 | −1.11 | −1.31 | −1.11 | −1.09 | −1.09 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.11 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −1.02 | −0.89 | −0.96 | −0.89 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.11 | −0.58 | −0.38 | · | −1.34 | −1.25 | −1.17 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.11 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.38 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.90 | −0.88 | −1.18 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.45 | −0.36 | −0.41 | −0.96 | −1.34 | −1.10 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.83 | −0.19 | −0.69 | −0.31 | −0.78 | −0.83 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.85 | −0.41 | · | −1.03 | −1.06 | · | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.07 | −0.27 | · | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.90 | −0.63 | −0.56 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Micronesia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +3.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 12 | 99 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +3.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 7 | 115 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 9 | 146 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 2.5 | 8.6 | 18 | 173 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −8.0 | 8.1 | 16.1 | 12 | 105 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 6.9 | 18.6 | 10 | 149 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −12.1 | 5.5 | 17.6 | 7 | 156 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.6 | 1.4 | 24.0 | 2 | 113 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −24.8 | 6.7 | 31.6 | 9 | 186 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −33.9 | 3.5 | 37.3 | 6 | 191 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Micronesia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 5.6% Likely · rank 19 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 34 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 44 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 129 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 121 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Food and water failure | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 189 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.8 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |