Monaco
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 29.2
- rank 76 of 197 · 3 years: 28.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −7.6
- rank 107 of 197 · 3 years: −7.3
- Shock absorbed
- 26%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Advanced Materials & Manufacturing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; services as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Monaco’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −1.03 | −1.26 | −0.58 | ▼ 8 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 1.00 | −0.98 | −1.41 | −0.64 | ▼ 5 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.95 | −0.92 | −1.31 | −0.60 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.97 | −0.85 | −1.03 | −0.50 | ▼ 4 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 1.00 | −0.83 | −1.21 | −0.54 | ▼ 7 | 18 | Economic Output & Productivity 3.5 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.70 | −0.73 | −0.94 | −0.43 | ▼ 4 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.80 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.36 | ▼ 7 | 13 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.47 | −0.38 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.7 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.38 | −0.30 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.29 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.42 | −1.31 | −0.60 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.52 | −1.42 | −1.22 | −1.57 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.59 | −0.53 | −0.33 | −1.36 | −1.19 | −1.27 | −1.19 | −1.17 | −1.17 |
| AI labour shock | −0.63 | −0.46 | · | −1.30 | −1.14 | −1.34 | −1.14 | −1.12 | −1.12 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.61 | −0.66 | −0.78 | · | −1.54 | −1.44 | −1.34 | −0.58 | −0.66 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.53 | · | −0.57 | −0.51 | −1.15 | −1.87 | −1.31 | −1.16 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.54 | −0.39 | −0.27 | −0.40 | −0.94 | −0.91 | −0.94 | −0.92 | −1.27 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.41 | −1.09 | −0.73 | · | −1.33 | −1.37 | · | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.76 | −0.62 | −0.23 | −0.27 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Monaco is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +21.2 | 23.7 | 2.4 | 25 | 58 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 10.2 | 0.5 | 16 | 82 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 24 | 81 | Intelligence & Assessment 2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 25 | 92 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 8.0 | 19.7 | 28 | 126 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 0.0 | 12.4 | 34 | 194 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −12.4 | 8.9 | 21.4 | 10 | 71 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −14.6 | 23.7 | 38.2 | 27 | 153 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.8 | 7.9 | 22.7 | 13 | 129 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 1.6 | 16.8 | 22 | 169 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Monaco, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 7.7% Likely · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 6.5% Likely · rank 1 | Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×1.5 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 5.0% Likely · rank 3 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 3.8% Possible · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 3.2% Possible · rank 4 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.6 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 2.7% Possible · rank 2 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.5% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 3 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 2 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 2 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 1 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 2 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 19 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 1 | AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Artificial Intelligence 1.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Intelligence & Assessment 2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 138 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 181 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 102 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 109 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 102 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×14 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 102 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 109 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 71 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Capable digital government | 11.1 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |