Mongolia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 24.7
- rank 88 of 197 · 3 years: 24.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.0
- rank 124 of 197 · 3 years: −9.5
- Shock absorbed
- 25%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of exports going to china and the united states; land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Mongolia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.92 | −1.00 | −1.28 | −0.58 | ▼ 8 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.79 | −0.84 | −1.10 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.74 | −0.84 | −1.11 | −0.50 | ▼ 4 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.80 | −0.80 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.73 | −0.79 | −1.05 | −0.47 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.59 | −0.81 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 11 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.9 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.53 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.58 | −0.50 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.1 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.32 | −0.37 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.35 | −0.29 | −0.38 | −0.16 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.91 | −0.53 | −0.43 | −0.53 | −1.24 | −1.20 | −1.24 | −1.22 | −1.67 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.45 | −1.17 | −0.85 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.90 | −1.15 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.77 | −0.46 | −0.33 | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.87 | −0.59 | −0.99 | · | −1.32 | −1.24 | −1.15 | −0.49 | −0.57 |
| AI labour shock | −0.76 | −0.41 | · | −1.09 | −0.95 | −1.12 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.93 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.33 | −0.39 | · | −0.39 | −0.36 | −0.80 | −1.30 | −0.91 | −0.81 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.80 | −0.23 | −0.64 | −0.29 | −0.72 | −0.76 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.28 | −0.33 | −0.53 | −0.30 | −0.69 | −0.96 | −0.79 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.49 | −0.41 | · | −0.54 | −0.56 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Mongolia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.4 | 16.3 | 2.9 | 23 | 78 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 35 | 65 | Energy Infrastructure 5.5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +0.7 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 30 | 119 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.7 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 14.1 | 13.6 | 24 | 74 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 21 | 133 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 7.8 | 13.8 | 22 | 130 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 14.4 | 22.9 | 24 | 122 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.8 | 21.6 | 37.4 | 30 | 145 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −25.7 | 11.7 | 37.3 | 14 | 173 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −26.8 | 6.5 | 33.3 | 9 | 141 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Mongolia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 20 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 2.4% Possible · rank 61 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 2.3% Possible · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 57 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 37 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 8 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 26 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 49 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 57 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 11 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 33 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.1 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 29 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Advanced Manufacturing 4.8 |
| Health system failure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 147 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 127 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Food and water failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 182 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.2 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 132 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 106 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |