Mozambique
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 28.6
- rank 77 of 197 · 3 years: 28.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −18.5
- rank 175 of 197 · 3 years: −18.7
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.25
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 1of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global funding seizure, Breadbasket failure, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Mozambique’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.78 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 4 | 13 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.1 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.70 | −0.78 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 8 | 16 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.77 | −0.76 | −0.94 | −0.41 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.6 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.57 | −0.71 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▼ 5 | 13 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.68 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.57 | −0.68 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.39 | −0.49 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.41 | −0.45 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.33 | −0.37 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 8 | 13 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.23 | −0.22 | −0.26 | −0.11 | 0 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.51 | −0.90 | −0.46 | −1.08 | −1.50 | −1.23 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.17 | −0.38 | −0.93 | −0.42 | −1.05 | −1.12 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.37 | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.47 | −1.05 | −1.71 | −1.20 | −1.06 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.32 | −0.89 | −0.31 | −0.84 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.69 | −0.79 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.57 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.90 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.53 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.70 | −0.67 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.94 |
| AI labour shock | −0.44 | −0.25 | · | −0.67 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.48 | −0.33 | −0.60 | · | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −0.50 | −0.47 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.45 | −0.39 | −0.50 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.35 | · | −0.39 | −0.40 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Mozambique is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +10.4 | 18.1 | 7.7 | 26 | 12 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.8 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +8.4 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 18 | 52 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 18 | 81 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −5.2 | 9.2 | 14.5 | 18 | 159 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.3 | 14.8 | 25.2 | 15 | 130 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 4.8 | 15.2 | 12 | 97 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −14.0 | 18.2 | 32.2 | 23 | 133 | Digital & Services Trade 4 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −31.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 7 | 158 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −39.9 | 5.3 | 45.2 | 23 | 188 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.7 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −63.4 | 5.4 | 68.8 | 16 | 188 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Mozambique, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 2.5% Possible · rank 59 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 38 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 150 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 122 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 75 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Food and water failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 54 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 91 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 144 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 131 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 83 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Severe | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 73 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 124 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 130 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 148 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 170 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 144 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×4.1 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.6 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 137 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |