Niger
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 38.2
- rank 41 of 197 · 3 years: 38.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.9
- rank 115 of 197 · 3 years: −8.7
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Niger’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.94 | −1.21 | −1.43 | −0.63 | ▼ 10 | 31 | Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.80 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.54 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.54 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.41 | −0.48 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.43 | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.36 | −0.47 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.34 | −0.41 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 10 | 12 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.30 | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 4 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.21 | −0.19 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.39 | −1.56 | −0.48 | −1.46 | −1.40 | −1.50 | −1.59 | −1.20 | −1.37 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.31 | −0.53 | −0.84 | −0.48 | −1.13 | −1.57 | −1.29 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.37 | · | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.75 | −1.22 | −0.86 | −0.76 |
| AI labour shock | −0.37 | −0.29 | · | −0.77 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.72 | −0.21 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.60 | · | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −0.56 | −0.43 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.51 | −0.43 | −0.56 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.32 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.44 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.12 | −0.32 | −0.27 | · | −0.36 | −0.37 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Niger is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.6 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 12 | 64 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.4 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 19 | 53 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 19 | 120 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −2.0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 13 | 90 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 11 | 138 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −11.4 | 4.1 | 15.5 | 12 | 185 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −15.7 | 2.1 | 17.7 | 8 | 135 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −17.4 | 9.2 | 26.6 | 15 | 149 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −17.6 | 10.6 | 28.2 | 11 | 175 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −28.2 | 1.3 | 29.6 | 4 | 147 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Niger, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 12 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.5% Possible · rank 56 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.3% Possible · rank 113 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 62 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 56 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 79 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 70 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 13 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Health system failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 154 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 151 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 131 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 177 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 172 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×15 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×2.0 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 2.4 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.5 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |