North Korea
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 41.4
- rank 38 of 197 · 3 years: 40.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −15.0
- rank 163 of 197 · 3 years: −14.3
- Shock absorbed
- 13%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.36
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 5of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
- weakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; land border with russia or belarus; low real gdp per head; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in North Korea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 1.00 | −1.17 | −1.26 | −0.63 | ▼ 12 | 24 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 1.00 | −1.12 | −1.27 | −0.65 | ▼ 17 | 24 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −1.07 | −1.33 | −0.64 | ▼ 8 | 24 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 1.00 | −0.95 | −1.12 | −0.54 | ▼ 9 | 25 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.77 | −0.95 | −1.13 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 21 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.83 | −0.90 | −1.05 | −0.50 | ▼ 8 | 19 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.61 | −0.66 | −0.73 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.60 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.32 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.47 | −0.62 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 17 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.6 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.15 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.07 | ▲ 6 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −1.38 | −0.68 | · | −1.81 | −1.52 | −1.43 | −1.02 | −1.43 | −1.26 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −1.64 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −1.43 | −1.20 | −1.05 | −1.33 | −1.52 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.64 | −1.52 | −1.52 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.29 | −0.99 | −1.07 | −1.46 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.36 | −0.74 | −1.48 | · | −1.61 | −1.19 | −0.91 | −0.60 | −0.67 |
| Severe pandemic | −1.04 | −0.52 | −0.47 | −1.27 | −1.11 | −1.11 | −0.94 | −1.02 | −1.09 |
| Core disaster | −0.05 | −1.45 | −0.52 | −1.15 | −0.52 | −1.19 | −0.97 | −1.11 | −1.17 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.41 | −0.45 | −0.89 | −0.41 | −0.95 | −1.00 | −1.01 | −0.41 | −0.46 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.42 | −0.46 | · | −0.46 | −0.42 | −0.87 | −1.06 | −1.02 | −0.86 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.33 | −0.78 | −0.30 | −0.73 | −0.70 | −0.71 | −0.80 | −0.58 | −0.68 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.20 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 | · | −0.08 | −0.08 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what North Korea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +10.4 | 12.4 | 2.0 | 13 | 79 | Financial System Depth & Access 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 14.2 | 3.9 | 19 | 91 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 2.7 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.3 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 17 | 84 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 1 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 4.0 | 9.1 | 10 | 165 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 8.1 | 17.7 | 13 | 146 | Financial System Depth & Access 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −16.5 | 5.5 | 21.9 | 7 | 169 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −17.6 | 7.1 | 24.7 | 12 | 151 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −25.0 | 8.5 | 33.5 | 12 | 132 | Artificial Intelligence 1.7 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −39.0 | 7.5 | 46.6 | 15 | 196 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −40.1 | 8.0 | 48.1 | 10 | 195 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for North Korea, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collapse in energy security | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 1 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Breakdown of state function | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 73 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 1 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Health system failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 12 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.6% Possible · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 1 | AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 5 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 11 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 1 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 |
| Food and water failure | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 30 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 1 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 77 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 3 | Breadbasket failure Major + AI labour shock Extreme | ×1.7 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 3 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 7 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 89 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |