Oman
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.2
- rank 134 of 197 · 3 years: 14.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −5.8
- rank 96 of 197 · 3 years: −6.0
- Shock absorbed
- 34%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.18
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; urban share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Oman’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.81 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.1 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.72 | −0.68 | −1.06 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.65 | −0.65 | −0.97 | −0.42 | 0 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 2 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.65 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.62 | −0.60 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 25 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.9 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.56 | −0.52 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.50 | −0.45 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5.1 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.59 | −0.45 | −0.66 | −0.29 | 0 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.57 | −0.44 | −0.71 | −0.31 | 0 | 19 | Labour & Employment 6.9 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.43 | −0.35 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 6.7 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.02 | −0.57 | −1.05 | · | −1.28 | −1.20 | −1.12 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.83 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.35 | −0.81 | −0.78 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −1.09 |
| AI labour shock | −0.72 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.69 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.84 | −0.73 | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.69 | −0.35 | −0.81 | −1.13 | −0.92 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.27 | −0.65 | −0.22 | −0.61 | −0.58 | −0.62 | −0.67 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.25 | −0.60 | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.54 | −0.46 | −0.59 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.34 | −0.73 | −0.73 | · | −0.82 | −0.84 | · | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.29 | · | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.59 | −0.96 | −0.68 | −0.60 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.53 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.43 | −0.43 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Oman is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.3 | 19.6 | 4.3 | 31 | 72 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +13.4 | 23.3 | 9.9 | 32 | 46 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +11.4 | 14.1 | 2.8 | 31 | 33 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −0.4 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 23 | 49 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −2.0 | 26.9 | 28.9 | 43 | 76 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.9 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 37 | 140 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −6.6 | 25.7 | 32.3 | 41 | 154 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.6 | 12.6 | 19.3 | 29 | 110 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −15.7 | 8.9 | 24.6 | 14 | 78 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −41.7 | 10.3 | 52.0 | 30 | 171 | Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Oman, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 143 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Loss of financial stability | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 142 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 118 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 121 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 59 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 37 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 63 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 64 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 120 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Health system failure | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 116 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 140 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 8.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 115 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 8.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 |
| Food and water failure | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 141 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 126 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 8.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 8.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 99 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Artificial Intelligence 3.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 70 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 70 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 72 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 68 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.4 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×3.0 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.2 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 63 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.6 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.8 |
| Capable digital government | 11.0 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×3.0 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 |
| Higher-value international business | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.2 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 7.5 |
| Wider international influence | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.3 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 9.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |