Pakistan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.3
- rank 132 of 197 · 3 years: 15.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +5.0
- rank 56 of 197 · 3 years: +5.7
- Shock absorbed
- 30%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; remittances relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Pakistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.72 | −0.80 | −1.14 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 27 | Population Health 3.8 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.75 | −1.05 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.65 | −0.65 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 20 | Health System Capability 5.6 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.58 | −0.65 | −0.87 | −0.38 | 0 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 4 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.65 | −0.61 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▲ 2 | 20 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 5.4 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.59 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 20 | Labour & Employment 4.3 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 18 | Population Health 4.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.46 | −0.44 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.34 | −0.36 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.38 | −0.26 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.42 | −0.99 | −0.38 | −0.93 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −1.02 | −0.76 | −0.87 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.43 | −0.47 | −0.94 | −0.43 | −1.00 | −1.39 | −1.14 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.97 | −0.35 | −0.77 | −0.35 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| AI labour shock | −0.72 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.34 | −0.80 | −0.80 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.62 | −0.79 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.35 | −0.39 | · | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.80 | −1.30 | −0.91 | −0.81 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.56 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.68 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.60 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.62 | · | −0.69 | −0.64 | −0.60 | −0.26 | −0.29 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.42 | −0.41 | −0.56 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.48 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Pakistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +24.0 | 27.1 | 3.1 | 36 | 12 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +15.2 | 21.9 | 6.7 | 40 | 52 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +15.0 | 24.2 | 9.2 | 35 | 61 | Energy Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +12.7 | 19.0 | 6.2 | 35 | 6 | Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.1 | 17.0 | 5.9 | 37 | 86 | Health System Capability 7 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 26.6 | 22.4 | 34 | 58 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 21.8 | 17.8 | 36 | 58 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 19.1 | 17.6 | 37 | 70 | Health System Capability 7 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −17.1 | 7.2 | 24.3 | 25 | 145 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.4 | 9.1 | 28.6 | 21 | 90 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Pakistan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 2.4% Possible · rank 105 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 79 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 81 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Food and water failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 29 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 145 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.3 |
| Health system failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 85 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 101 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 132 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 52 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 7 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 77 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 123 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Health System Capability 7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 97 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 106 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 57 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 44 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 93 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 96 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×4.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×4.6 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 112 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×4.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 7.7 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 52 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 50 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 32 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Major | ×1.9 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 60 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 53 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.7 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.0 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.6 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 |
| Research translated into value | 6.6 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 |
| Higher-value international business | 6.8 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 12.3 Established | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | — Remote · rank 70 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |