Panama
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 16.2
- rank 125 of 197 · 3 years: 16.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −2.8
- rank 79 of 197 · 3 years: −2.7
- Shock absorbed
- 31%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.19
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Panama’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.75 | −0.78 | −1.07 | −0.48 | 0 | 14 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.72 | −0.75 | −1.09 | −0.49 | 0 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.70 | −1.01 | −0.45 | 0 | 10 | Artificial Intelligence 1.9 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.68 | −0.85 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.64 | −0.55 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 3.1 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.54 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.62 | −0.52 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.4 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.42 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 7.1 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.33 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.7 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.32 | −0.30 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 4 | 3 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6.1 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.44 | −1.06 | −0.88 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −1.02 | −0.95 | −0.82 | −1.05 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.72 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.98 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| AI labour shock | −0.70 | −0.36 | · | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.79 | −0.49 | −0.89 | · | −1.09 | −1.02 | −0.96 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.64 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −1.04 | −0.85 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.63 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.87 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.70 | −1.14 | −0.80 | −0.71 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.63 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.22 | −0.56 | −0.60 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.54 | −0.54 | · | −0.60 | −0.62 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Panama is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.5 | 20.4 | 4.9 | 31 | 70 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.1 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 23 | 89 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 45 | 77 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 35 | 112 | Intelligence & Assessment 5 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 26.6 | 25.7 | 46 | 66 | Technical & Vocational Skills 8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 14.7 | 15.6 | 28 | 81 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 22.8 | 25.9 | 31 | 97 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.2 | 7.9 | 16.0 | 30 | 138 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 10.3 | 18.6 | 23 | 84 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −17.4 | 6.5 | 23.9 | 13 | 86 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Panama, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.6% Possible · rank 154 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 131 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 119 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 109 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Monetary & Currency Capability 6.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 89 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 85 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 147 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 92 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Health system failure | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 173 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 105 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 117 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 140 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Food and water failure | 9.3 Transitional → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 183 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Maritime Power 3.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 82 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 95 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 82 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 82 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.8 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 66 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Technologies 1.4 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 |
| Capable digital government | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Technical & Vocational Skills 8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Technical & Vocational Skills 8 |
| Higher-value international business | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Technical & Vocational Skills 8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Technical & Vocational Skills 8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |