Papua New Guinea
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 32.7
- rank 62 of 197 · 3 years: 32.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −27.3
- rank 188 of 197 · 3 years: −27.2
- Shock absorbed
- 16%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 4of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Papua New Guinea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.65 | −0.73 | −0.87 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.63 | −0.72 | −0.88 | −0.38 | ▼ 4 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.54 | −0.65 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▲ 5 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.59 | −0.62 | −0.68 | −0.31 | 0 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.45 | −0.57 | −0.67 | −0.30 | ▲ 7 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.44 | −0.56 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 5 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.52 | −0.48 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▼ 4 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.42 | −0.47 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 11 | 8 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.46 | −0.46 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 12 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.46 | −0.45 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 8 | 10 | Labour & Employment 2.9 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.45 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.94 | −0.90 | −0.94 | −0.92 | −1.26 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.08 | −0.35 | −0.86 | −0.39 | −0.96 | −1.03 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| AI labour shock | −0.39 | −0.35 | · | −0.93 | −0.82 | −0.96 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.43 | −0.48 | −0.85 | · | −1.06 | −1.00 | −0.93 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.41 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.77 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.70 | −0.24 | −0.66 | −0.63 | −0.68 | −0.72 | −0.54 | −0.62 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.26 | −0.80 | −0.80 | · | −0.88 | −0.91 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −0.64 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.50 | −0.64 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.19 | −0.30 | −0.54 | −0.27 | −0.63 | −0.88 | −0.72 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.31 | · | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.63 | −1.02 | −0.72 | −0.64 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Papua New Guinea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 13 | 134 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 23 | 102 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.3 | 10.8 | 18.1 | 14 | 113 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.0 | 7.2 | 15.3 | 14 | 135 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −13.2 | 8.0 | 21.2 | 14 | 146 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −27.2 | 14.1 | 41.2 | 21 | 180 | Digital & Services Trade 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −32.1 | 5.8 | 37.9 | 11 | 189 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −34.9 | 6.0 | 40.9 | 21 | 184 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −39.1 | 2.7 | 41.8 | 5 | 186 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −63.2 | 5.7 | 68.9 | 13 | 187 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Papua New Guinea, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 166 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Health System Capability 4.3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 186 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Severe | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2 |
| Food and water failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 96 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Health System Capability 4.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 178 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 157 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Health System Capability 4.3 |
| Health system failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 175 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 105 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 184 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Advanced Manufacturing 3.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Advanced Manufacturing 3.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 181 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Advanced Manufacturing 3.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Health System Capability 4.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 171 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 152 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 184 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 0.7 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×15 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 155 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 152 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 189 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Artificial Intelligence 0.7 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 151 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |