Paraguay
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 19.7
- rank 111 of 197 · 3 years: 19.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −13.7
- rank 155 of 197 · 3 years: −13.8
- Shock absorbed
- 25%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Paraguay’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.74 | −0.83 | −1.05 | −0.47 | ▲ 1 | 21 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.70 | −0.80 | −1.06 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.75 | −0.69 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.61 | −0.67 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.63 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.45 | −0.50 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.50 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.42 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Maritime Power 0.1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.27 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.47 | −1.13 | −0.89 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.08 | −1.01 | −0.87 | −1.11 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.76 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −1.04 | −0.91 | −0.98 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −0.89 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.39 | −0.44 | −0.80 | −0.40 | −0.93 | −1.30 | −1.07 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| AI labour shock | −0.69 | −0.34 | · | −0.91 | −0.80 | −0.94 | −0.80 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.75 | −0.48 | −0.87 | · | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.60 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.58 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.81 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.75 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.27 | · | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.56 | −0.91 | −0.64 | −0.57 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Paraguay is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +13.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 19 | 68 | Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +8.1 | 13.9 | 5.8 | 22 | 97 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 28 | 108 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.2 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 36 | 96 | Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 12.8 | 17.8 | 21 | 99 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −10.6 | 4.9 | 15.5 | 16 | 99 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −13.6 | 15.4 | 29.0 | 23 | 148 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −16.8 | 17.9 | 34.7 | 33 | 147 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −27.0 | 4.7 | 31.8 | 9 | 143 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −37.4 | 6.7 | 44.1 | 22 | 197 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Paraguay, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 153 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 128 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 142 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 131 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 100 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 148 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 127 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Health system failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 167 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 148 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 137 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 147 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 1 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 171 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Food and water failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 184 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 181 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 124 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 106 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |