Romania
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 11.4
- rank 156 of 197 · 3 years: 11.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +6.6
- rank 50 of 197 · 3 years: +6.9
- Shock absorbed
- 40%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.14
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Romania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.82 | −0.73 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 6.2 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.71 | −1.10 | −0.48 | 0 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.5 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.74 | −0.69 | −1.15 | −0.50 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.1 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.63 | −0.54 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Maritime Power 5.9 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.46 | −0.76 | −0.33 | 0 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.63 | −0.46 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.9 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.46 | −0.79 | −0.34 | 0 | 14 | Maritime Power 5.8 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.57 | −0.43 | −0.74 | −0.32 | 0 | 9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.3 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.39 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9.7 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.29 | −0.47 | −0.21 | 0 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.7 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.81 | −0.37 | · | −0.99 | −0.86 | −1.02 | −0.86 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.92 | −0.50 | −0.92 | · | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.73 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.83 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.31 | −0.73 | −0.67 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.72 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.61 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.73 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.28 | −0.30 | · | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.62 | −1.01 | −0.71 | −0.63 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.34 | −0.74 | −0.74 | · | −0.83 | −0.85 | · | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.50 | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.80 | −0.66 | −0.25 | −0.28 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.58 | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.55 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Romania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +31.9 | 34.1 | 2.2 | 48 | 41 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +27.0 | 27.4 | 0.4 | 44 | 35 | Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +25.4 | 26.7 | 1.2 | 52 | 25 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.3 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 14.2 | 6.6 | 49 | 42 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.2 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +4.7 | 26.7 | 22.0 | 31 | 41 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 37.1 | 36.2 | 49 | 74 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 35 | 55 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −2.1 | 20.4 | 22.4 | 54 | 77 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 48 | 117 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 4.7 | 9.8 | 56 | 162 | Financial System Depth & Access 10.6 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Romania, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 146 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 28 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 102 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 143 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 37 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 135 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 56 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 56 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 31 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 114 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 37 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 146 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 93 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 131 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 116 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Artificial Intelligence 7.7 |
| Defence readiness failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 64 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Health system failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 181 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Artificial Intelligence 7.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 32 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 4.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 7.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 111 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 7.7 |
| Food and water failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 180 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×5.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 45 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Capable digital government | 12.1 Established → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 43 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 43 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.8 Nascent → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 38 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 42 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 6.3 Foundational → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 37 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 53 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 43 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Research translated into value | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 40 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.0 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.3 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.1 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.7 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.7 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Wider international influence | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 64 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 45 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | — Remote · rank 50 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Assured space services | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 45 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 45 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 11.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |