Rwanda
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.1
- rank 108 of 197 · 3 years: 19.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +2.8
- rank 64 of 197 · 3 years: +3.1
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.22
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Rwanda’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.75 | −0.85 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▼ 10 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.73 | −0.81 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.71 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.47 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 3 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 2.6 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.50 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Economic Output & Productivity 4.8 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.44 | −0.49 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.48 | −0.48 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.45 | −0.67 | −0.30 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.39 | −0.44 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.23 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.11 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.45 | −1.07 | −0.33 | −1.00 | −0.96 | −1.03 | −1.09 | −0.82 | −0.94 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.47 | −1.11 | −0.86 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.86 | −1.10 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.42 | −0.46 | −0.75 | −0.42 | −0.97 | −1.36 | −1.11 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| AI labour shock | −0.57 | −0.26 | · | −0.69 | −0.60 | −0.71 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.30 | −0.33 | · | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.68 | −1.10 | −0.77 | −0.69 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.63 | −0.35 | −0.58 | · | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.69 | −0.20 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.55 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.71 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.14 | −0.31 | −0.26 | · | −0.35 | −0.36 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Rwanda is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +19.4 | 22.6 | 3.2 | 28 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +14.5 | 16.1 | 1.5 | 20 | 64 | Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +12.4 | 17.5 | 5.1 | 31 | 56 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 32 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 31 | 64 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.7 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 30 | 135 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 23.4 | 22.6 | 26 | 72 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 20.4 | 23.8 | 30 | 83 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.2 | 5.8 | 12.0 | 18 | 73 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.5 | 4.1 | 23.6 | 12 | 91 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Rwanda, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 126 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 57 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 102 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 38 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 141 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 124 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 110 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 109 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 94 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 108 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 91 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 101 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 100 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 100 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 122 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 100 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 8.5 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 69 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 69 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |