Saint Lucia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.6
- rank 45 of 197 · 3 years: 36.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −15.1
- rank 166 of 197 · 3 years: −15.0
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; services as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Saint Lucia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.82 | −0.88 | −1.02 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.71 | −0.78 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.80 | −0.75 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.66 | −0.75 | −0.91 | −0.41 | 0 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.57 | −0.68 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.63 | −0.71 | −0.33 | 0 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.71 | −0.62 | −0.82 | −0.37 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.1 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.58 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.47 | −0.52 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 18 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.31 | −0.28 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −1.21 | −0.61 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.31 | −1.22 | −1.05 | −1.35 |
| AI labour shock | −0.17 | −0.43 | · | −1.17 | −1.02 | −1.20 | −1.02 | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.51 | · | −0.53 | −0.47 | −1.07 | −1.74 | −1.22 | −1.08 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.17 | −0.44 | −0.27 | −1.09 | −0.95 | −1.02 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.93 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.86 | −0.23 | −0.84 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.69 | −0.79 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.17 | −0.54 | −0.57 | · | −1.22 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −0.46 | −0.52 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.15 | −0.43 | −0.54 | −0.39 | −0.92 | −1.28 | −1.05 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.86 | −0.22 | −0.70 | −0.32 | −0.79 | −0.84 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.17 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.95 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.10 | −0.49 | −0.40 | · | −0.55 | −0.57 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Saint Lucia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 14 | 138 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 25 | 119 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −4.4 | 12.1 | 16.5 | 20 | 85 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.6 | 8.3 | 18.9 | 16 | 135 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 7.7 | 19.0 | 11 | 154 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −13.2 | 4.5 | 17.8 | 16 | 169 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −16.1 | 4.2 | 20.3 | 9 | 137 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −16.7 | 6.5 | 23.2 | 13 | 177 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.8 | 2.1 | 21.9 | 4 | 94 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −30.3 | 10.1 | 40.4 | 15 | 193 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Saint Lucia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 4.6% Possible · rank 12 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Major | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.1% Possible · rank 24 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Health system failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 48 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 56 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 116 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 43 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 71 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Food and water failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 56 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 41 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×17 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 152 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 149 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |