Saint Vincent & Grenadines
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 38.8
- rank 40 of 197 · 3 years: 38.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.5
- rank 147 of 197 · 3 years: −12.4
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Saint Vincent & Grenadines’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.78 | −0.85 | −0.98 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.71 | −0.85 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.72 | −0.82 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.75 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 3 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.81 | −0.72 | −0.93 | −0.43 | 0 | 14 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.74 | −0.70 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.9 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.63 | −0.65 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.67 | −0.62 | −0.69 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.48 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 5 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.37 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.16 | −1.16 | −0.59 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −1.25 | −1.17 | −1.00 | −1.29 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −1.06 | −0.28 | −1.05 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −1.14 | −0.86 | −0.98 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.17 | −0.48 | −0.29 | −1.18 | −1.04 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| AI labour shock | −0.17 | −0.41 | · | −1.12 | −0.98 | −1.15 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.49 | −0.58 | −0.46 | −1.07 | −1.49 | −1.23 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.47 | · | −0.49 | −0.44 | −0.99 | −1.61 | −1.13 | −1.00 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −0.96 | −0.24 | −0.80 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.17 | −0.52 | −0.57 | · | −1.19 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.62 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.87 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.12 | −0.57 | −0.46 | · | −0.65 | −0.67 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Saint Vincent & Grenadines is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +5.4 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 11 | 105 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 14 | 132 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 25 | 106 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 16 | 141 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −10.1 | 10.3 | 20.4 | 18 | 118 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 8.8 | 19.1 | 16 | 133 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 8.2 | 23.4 | 12 | 171 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −16.5 | 3.5 | 20.0 | 9 | 139 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.0 | 2.0 | 25.0 | 4 | 119 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −26.6 | 11.2 | 37.8 | 15 | 190 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Saint Vincent & Grenadines, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 4.2% Possible · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 3.3% Possible · rank 29 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 2.7% Possible · rank 11 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Health system failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 5 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Food and water failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 32 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 43 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 9 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 89 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 74 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 17 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 145 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×17 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 167 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 153 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |