Samoa
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 43.9
- rank 33 of 197 · 3 years: 43.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.6
- rank 148 of 197 · 3 years: −12.2
- Shock absorbed
- 16%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.33
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Samoa’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.91 | −0.98 | −1.13 | −0.52 | ▼ 5 | 22 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.76 | −0.86 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 5 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.60 | −0.72 | −0.87 | −0.39 | 0 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.78 | −0.72 | −0.79 | −0.37 | ▼ 4 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.64 | −0.77 | −0.34 | 0 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.53 | −0.59 | −0.68 | −0.31 | 0 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.59 | −0.76 | −0.34 | 0 | 17 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 1.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.59 | −0.51 | −0.57 | −0.26 | ▼ 4 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.55 | −0.49 | −0.64 | −0.29 | ▲ 6 | 10 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.47 | −0.46 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −1.31 | −0.66 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.47 | −1.37 | −1.18 | −1.51 |
| AI labour shock | −0.15 | −0.47 | · | −1.30 | −1.14 | −1.34 | −1.14 | −1.12 | −1.12 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.92 | −0.22 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.98 | −0.74 | −0.84 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.15 | −0.61 | −0.61 | · | −1.40 | −1.32 | −1.23 | −0.53 | −0.60 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.93 | −0.82 | −0.88 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.34 | −0.80 | −0.77 | −0.80 | −0.79 | −1.08 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.88 | −0.20 | −0.72 | −0.33 | −0.81 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.89 | −0.63 | · | −1.04 | −1.08 | · | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.72 | −1.00 | −0.82 | −0.31 | −0.35 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.11 | −0.32 | · | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.65 | −1.07 | −0.75 | −0.66 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Samoa is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 12 | 121 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 24 | 127 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −4.1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 16 | 148 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 11.1 | 17.5 | 17 | 92 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.4 | 9.8 | 16.2 | 14 | 109 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 7.6 | 15.9 | 11 | 140 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −11.1 | 7.9 | 19.0 | 10 | 153 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.0 | 2.6 | 23.6 | 4 | 102 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −21.7 | 10.5 | 32.2 | 13 | 178 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −28.3 | 4.3 | 32.6 | 8 | 178 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Samoa, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 3.9% Possible · rank 43 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Food and water failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 56 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 80 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 101 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 101 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 106 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Artificial Intelligence 0.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 92 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Artificial Intelligence 0.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 137 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Artificial Intelligence 0.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Artificial Intelligence 0.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 139 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 166 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 148 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×20 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |