Sierra Leone
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 37.9
- rank 42 of 197 · 3 years: 37.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.8
- rank 113 of 197 · 3 years: −8.4
- Shock absorbed
- 16%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.29
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; share of exports going to china and the united states; low life expectancy at birth; consumer price inflation; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Sierra Leone’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.80 | −1.00 | −1.21 | −0.54 | ▼ 5 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.70 | −0.80 | −0.95 | −0.43 | 0 | 18 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.73 | −0.95 | −0.42 | 0 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.67 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.64 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.48 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.42 | −0.50 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 8 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.43 | −0.45 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.39 | −0.44 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 7 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.24 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.22 | −1.30 | −0.43 | −1.22 | −1.16 | −1.25 | −1.33 | −1.00 | −1.14 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −1.14 | −0.88 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.02 | −0.88 | −1.13 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.80 | −0.45 | −1.04 | −1.45 | −1.19 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.87 | −0.83 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −1.17 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.44 | · | −0.44 | −0.40 | −0.90 | −1.46 | −1.03 | −0.91 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| AI labour shock | −0.28 | −0.27 | · | −0.73 | −0.64 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.26 | −0.35 | −0.61 | · | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.66 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.59 | −0.63 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.10 | −0.38 | −0.38 | · | −0.42 | −0.44 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Sierra Leone is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 8.7 | 1.8 | 10 | 98 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 13 | 62 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 22 | 32 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 20 | 101 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 15 | 76 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 6.2 | 14.3 | 14 | 176 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 13.6 | 24.0 | 15 | 134 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −22.1 | 5.1 | 27.2 | 10 | 166 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −25.1 | 12.0 | 37.1 | 19 | 171 | Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −35.1 | 1.4 | 36.5 | 5 | 174 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Sierra Leone, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 10 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 2.7% Possible · rank 90 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 55 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 55 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Major | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 106 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 2 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 56 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Major | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 113 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 76 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 81 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 146 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 122 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 93 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 130 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Global funding seizure Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.9 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 157 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |