Slovenia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 13.0
- rank 146 of 197 · 3 years: 12.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +11.7
- rank 38 of 197 · 3 years: +11.9
- Shock absorbed
- 42%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.15
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Slovenia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.98 | −0.90 | −1.43 | −0.63 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.85 | −0.74 | −1.31 | −0.57 | 0 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.6 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.86 | −0.71 | −1.09 | −0.48 | 0 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.9 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.80 | −0.66 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Artificial Intelligence 6.3 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.90 | −0.60 | −1.13 | −0.49 | 0 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.2 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.68 | −0.59 | −1.01 | −0.44 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.49 | −0.79 | −0.35 | 0 | 11 | Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.40 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Financial System Depth & Access 10.3 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.33 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 7 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.41 | −0.28 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.4 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.51 | −1.21 | −1.11 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.16 | −1.08 | −0.93 | −1.19 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.79 | −0.40 | −0.32 | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.92 | −0.50 | −0.92 | · | −1.11 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| AI labour shock | −0.73 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.91 | −0.77 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.36 | −0.40 | · | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.82 | −1.33 | −0.93 | −0.83 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.77 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.69 | −0.67 | −0.69 | −0.68 | −0.93 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.37 | −0.80 | −0.80 | · | −0.89 | −0.91 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.60 | −0.19 | −0.48 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.57 | −0.49 | −0.49 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.52 | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Slovenia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +38.6 | 40.5 | 1.9 | 50 | 31 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +34.0 | 39.5 | 5.5 | 42 | 24 | Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +21.6 | 25.7 | 4.2 | 50 | 36 | Intelligence & Assessment 8.3 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +9.4 | 36.8 | 27.4 | 52 | 51 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 26.5 | 19.3 | 31 | 36 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.8 | 29.0 | 22.2 | 57 | 47 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10.7 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +6.8 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 47 | 48 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +5.5 | 17.9 | 12.4 | 35 | 36 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 51 | 113 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 61 | 131 | Financial System Depth & Access 11.2 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Slovenia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 4.0% Possible · rank 38 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 2.1% Possible · rank 80 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 25 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 2.0% Possible · rank 42 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 26 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 18 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 60 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 45 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 48 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Health system failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 60 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 41 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 17 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 10 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.3 Established → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 16 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Food and water failure | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 15 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 20 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 3.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 53 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 12.0 Established → Established | 4.5% Possible · rank 37 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | 3.9% Possible · rank 24 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.3 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 2.6% Possible · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Capable digital government | 13.1 Established → Established | 2.5% Possible · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.1 Established → Established | 2.2% Possible · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.4 Nascent → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 33 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.2 |
| Research translated into value | 12.1 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 30 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×2.2 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 5.7 Nascent → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 35 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 32 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.2 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 30 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×2.1 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10.7 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 34 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 30 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 35 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 33 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Severe | ×2.0 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.0 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 33 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 32 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 12.0 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 5.8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.8 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Wider international influence | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.3 | Intelligence & Assessment 8.3 |
| Assured space services | 3.8 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 32 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 44 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 44 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |