Europe · ESP

Spain

Baseline index 13.78Rank 19 of 197EstablishedEuropeAtlas profileAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years
7.8
rank 176 of 197 · 3 years: 7.7
Worst case
−4.6%
AI labour shock · tail −4.4%
Opportunity · 10 years
+26.6
rank 18 of 197 · 3 years: +27.1
Best case
+53
Outbreak defence succeeds · gainer in 7 of 10
Shock absorbed
53%
by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend
+0.04
expected index points from best practice
Breadth
0of 10
scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link
Labour & Employment
weakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Spain’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

AI labour shock (S08)
Regional war spillover (S03)
Cryptographic trust break (S09)
Severe pandemic (S10)
Global funding seizure (S02)
Hybrid coercion (S04)
Core disaster (S07)
Trade bloc rupture (S01)
Legitimacy rupture (S05)
Breadbasket failure (S06)

−0.63

−0.59

−0.59

−0.57

−0.47

−0.40

−0.37

−0.34

−0.32

−0.30

ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
AI labour shock S08High 0.86−0.63−1.28−0.56012Artificial Intelligence 10.4 · Transitional
Regional war spillover S03High 0.87−0.59−1.27−0.55014Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 9.5 · Transitional
Cryptographic trust break S09High 0.91−0.59−1.15−0.50011Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
Severe pandemic S10High 0.80−0.57−1.24−0.54011Labour & Employment 12.4 · Established
Global funding seizure S02High 0.82−0.47−1.02−0.44010Labour & Employment 12.4 · Established
Hybrid coercion S04High 0.76−0.40−0.85−0.37012Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.3 · Transitional
Core disaster S07Medium 0.59−0.37−0.83−0.36012Financial System Depth & Access 13.4 · Established
Trade bloc rupture S01Medium 0.47−0.34−0.69−0.30▲ 18Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational
Legitimacy rupture S05Medium 0.53−0.32−0.69−0.3008Force Generation & Mobilisation 12.3 · Established
Breadbasket failure S06Medium 0.42−0.30−0.66−0.2807Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.2 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCT Critical TechnologySI Strategic InfrastructureNS National SecurityHC Human CapitalII Information & InfluenceGI Governance & IntegrityFS Financial StrengthPI Production & InnovationTI Trade & Investment
AI labour shock−0.70−0.32·−0.85−0.74−0.87−0.74−0.72−0.72
Regional war spillover−0.33−0.79−0.73−0.30−0.30−0.76−0.71−0.61−0.78
Cryptographic trust break−0.76−0.42−0.76·−0.93−0.87−0.81−0.35−0.40
Severe pandemic−0.60−0.30−0.25−0.73−0.64−0.69−0.64−0.63−0.63
Global funding seizure−0.28−0.31·−0.32−0.28−0.64−1.04−0.73−0.65
Hybrid coercion−0.30−0.65−0.65·−0.72−0.74·−0.27−0.27
Core disaster−0.02−0.55−0.18−0.44−0.20−0.49−0.52−0.45−0.45
Trade bloc rupture−0.44−0.17−0.15−0.17−0.40−0.38−0.40−0.39−0.54
Legitimacy rupture−0.19−0.20−0.37−0.19−0.43−0.60−0.50−0.19−0.21
Breadbasket failure−0.16−0.37−0.13−0.35−0.33−0.35−0.38−0.28−0.32
Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Spain is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗Gainer+53.354.61.37116Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
Clean power threshold S15 ↗Gainer+50.855.24.4658Energy Technologies 12 · Established
Middle East settlement S14 ↗Gainer+33.636.83.27113Intelligence & Assessment 13.5 · Established
Automated discovery step S17 ↗Gainer+32.744.511.95120Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗Gainer+32.154.922.97119Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established
Market access opening S12 ↗Gainer+11.923.611.87132Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
Public service leap S18 ↗Gainer+11.115.54.36528Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional
Great-power détente S13 ↗Mixed+9.419.19.65327Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗Mixed+8.515.87.37150Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
Debt service reset S11 ↗Mixed+1.67.55.97076Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13.5 · Established

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Spain, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failureBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Breakdown of state function14.8 Established → Transitional2.6% Possible · rank 93Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×3.2Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 12.7
Loss of financial stability14.4 Established → Transitional2.3% Possible · rank 69Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.6Quantum Technologies 11.5
Broad fall in governance and integrity14.5 Established → Transitional1.4% Possible · rank 92Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 11.5
Broad fall in financial strength14.2 Established → Transitional1.2% Possible · rank 93Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail×2.9Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.8
Strategic awareness failure13.0 Established → Transitional1.1% Possible · rank 44Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×2.6Quantum Technologies 11.5
Breakdown of information trust14.8 Established → Transitional0.9% Unlikely · rank 55Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2Quantum Technologies 11.5
Rupture in trade and supply14.6 Established → Transitional0.6% Unlikely · rank 111Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail×2.8Resource Infrastructure 12
Broad fall in information and influence14.3 Established → Transitional0.6% Unlikely · rank 60Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2Quantum Technologies 11.5
Broad fall in national security11.6 Transitional → Foundational0.6% Unlikely · rank 21Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.9Resource Infrastructure 12
Defence readiness failure13.8 Established → Transitional0.6% Unlikely · rank 24Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.0Resource Infrastructure 12
Broad fall in trade and investment14.6 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 78Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×3.8Resource Infrastructure 12
Failure of digital lifelines14.2 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 35Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2Quantum Technologies 11.5
Collapse in energy security13.2 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 64Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail×3.0Resource Infrastructure 12
Rule of law failure14.2 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 130Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2Quantum Technologies 11.5
Broad fall in production and innovation13.7 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 37Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail×4.1Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.8
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure15.0 Established → Transitional0.4% Unlikely · rank 50Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.8Resource Infrastructure 12
Diplomatic isolation14.1 Established → Transitional0.4% Unlikely · rank 70Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2Quantum Technologies 11.5
Loss of industrial capacity14.3 Established → Transitional0.4% Unlikely · rank 56Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail×3.8Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 12.8
Health system failure15.7 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 163Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail×2.7Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Broad fall in human capital14.5 Established → Transitional0.2% Unlikely · rank 43Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail×3.5Artificial Intelligence 11.7
Food and water failure15.9 Advanced → Established0.2% Remote · rank 139Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×4.9Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 12.7
Broad fall in critical technology11.6 Transitional → Foundational0.1% Remote · rank 37Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×3.9Quantum Technologies 11.5
Education pipeline failure14.6 Established → Transitionalunder 0.1% Remote · rank 86Breadbasket failure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail×3.8Artificial Intelligence 11.7
Loss of advanced technology base10.6 Transitional → Foundationalunder 0.1% Remote · rank 43Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.3Quantum Technologies 11.5
Loss of strategic deterrence7.2 Foundational → Nascentunder 0.1% Remote · rank 37Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×4.9Resource Infrastructure 12
Routes to prosperityBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Reliable low-cost energy13.8 Established → Advanced17% Likely · rank 10Clean power threshold Severe×0.9Energy Technologies 12
Stronger health and biotechnology15.0 Established → Advanced13% Likely · rank 18Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.1Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Capable digital government14.8 Established → Advanced12% Likely · rank 16Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Trusted public institutions14.2 Established → Advanced12% Likely · rank 16Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Broad rise in critical technology11.6 Transitional → Established12% Likely · rank 13Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.5Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
Frontier AI and compute9.6 Transitional → Transitional12% Likely · rank 17Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.1Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
Broad rise in governance and integrity14.5 Established → Advanced9.8% Likely · rank 16Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Research translated into value13.8 Established → Advanced7.3% Likely · rank 16Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.4Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
Broad rise in financial strength14.2 Established → Advanced5.9% Likely · rank 6Clean power threshold Extreme×1.6Energy Technologies 12
Broad rise in production and innovation13.7 Established → Advanced5.5% Likely · rank 13Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.4Energy Technologies 12
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure15.0 Established → Advanced5.2% Likely · rank 15Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5Energy Technologies 12
Higher-value manufacturing13.3 Established → Established4.0% Possible · rank 19Automated discovery step Extreme×1.5Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
Deeper long-term finance14.3 Established → Advanced3.6% Possible · rank 9Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4Energy Technologies 12
Broad rise in human capital14.5 Established → Advanced3.3% Possible · rank 21Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Broad rise in trade and investment14.6 Established → Advanced3.0% Possible · rank 22Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.6Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Adaptable skilled workforce13.4 Established → Established2.6% Possible · rank 16Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Higher-value international business14.5 Established → Advanced2.3% Possible · rank 22Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Sophisticated export strength14.7 Established → Advanced2.3% Possible · rank 22Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Secure food and water supply15.9 Advanced → Advanced2.2% Possible · rank 19Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.8Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Stronger information environment14.6 Established → Advanced1.5% Possible · rank 13Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Wider international influence14.1 Established → Advanced1.5% Possible · rank 14Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme×1.6Intelligence & Assessment 13.5
Assured space services11.9 Transitional → Established1.2% Possible · rank 17Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.1Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Broad rise in information and influence14.3 Established → Advanced0.8% Unlikely · rank 18Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.6Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6
Broad rise in national security11.6 Transitional → Establishedunder 0.1% Remote · rank 24Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.3Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5
More deployable joint force13.7 Established → Advancedunder 0.1% Remote · rank 24Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×2.3Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5